Cádiz II v Linense prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Cádiz II 1–1 Linense CÁDIZ II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Cádiz II win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.787

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cádiz II win at 46%.
1′KICK-OFF Cádiz II v Linense
2′Much as we predicted: Cádiz II was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–29–26
19′Cádiz II score on 19′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–8
19′We published Cádiz II at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Cádiz II 1–0 Linense
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Cádiz II win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Cádiz II win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–7
45′18′: I. Pajaron on the scoresheet for Cádiz II, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
45′HALF-TIME Cádiz II 1–0 Linense
46′SECOND HALF Cádiz II 1–0 Linense
54′We published Cádiz II at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
63′Linense find the net on 63′. 1–1. 1–1 · 27–55–18
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Cádiz II 1–1 Linense
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Cádiz II win: 46% at kick-off, 27% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Cádiz II win 27%)
64′We said Cádiz II at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–56–17
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Cádiz II win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
67′We said Cádiz II at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–60–16
74′We said Cádiz II at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–69–13
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Cádiz II win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
79′We said Cádiz II at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–10
84′We said Cádiz II at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–86–6
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Cádiz II win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
90′We said Cádiz II at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Cádiz II 1–1 Linense
FTCádiz II 1–1 Linense · Cádiz II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cádiz II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cádiz II 46%, draw 28%, Linense 26%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Cádiz II v LinenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cádiz II win46%

Draw28%

Linense win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 10 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cádiz II

Linense

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Linense	6	−2	6
15	Cádiz II	6	−1	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cádiz ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Cádiz II a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cádiz II v Linense~~1.40 – 0.97

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 6~~15 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cádiz II win	46%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Linense win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Cádiz II or draw	74%	–	–
Cádiz II clean sheet	38%	–	–
Linense clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.4 8.4 4.5 1 12.3 13.2 6.1 2.0 2 9.0 8.6 4.2 3 4.3 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cádiz II down, Linense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,492 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2019/20 in every competition we cover, 1.56 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cádiz II at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Linense away: 0.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Cádiz II, 0.97 for Linense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2019/20

~~Goals a meeting~~1.56

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~LIN 0–0 CAD · CAD 0–4 LIN · LIN 0–2 CAD · CAD 0–1 LIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 5 Sept

CÁDIZ II

DDWLLL2–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

LINENSE

LWLWLL1–2 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dos Hermanas	7	+12	16
2	Utrera	6	+3	15
3	Portuense	6	+7	13
4	Betis C	6	+6	13
5	Pozoblanco	7	+4	11
6	Tomares	6	+2	11
7	Egabrense	6	+1	8
8	San Roque Lepe	6	−1	8
9	Xerez Deportivo	6	−1	8
10	Chiclana	6	−1	8
11	Ceuta II	7	−4	8
12	Recreativo Huelva	6	−3	7
13	Linense	6	−2	6
14	Conil	6	−6	6
15	Cádiz II	6	−1	5
16	Bollullos	6	−2	5
17	Sevilla III	7	−7	5
18	Córdoba II	6	−7	2