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Bollullos v Chiclana

Bollullos

2–0Full time

Chiclana

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Bollullos 2–0 Chiclana BOLLULLOS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bollullos win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.409

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bollullos win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bollullos 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–25
1′KICK-OFF Bollullos v Chiclana
3′Little has changed for our model: Bollullos 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Bollullos 1–0 Chiclana
22′13′ and it is 1–0: Bollullos have scored. 1–0 · 76–17–7
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Bollullos win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Bollullos win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Bollullos win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
24′13′ and it is 1–0: Bollullos have scored. 1–0 · 76–17–7
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Bollullos win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Bollullos win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Bollullos win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
45′HALF-TIME Bollullos 1–0 Chiclana
46′SECOND HALF Bollullos 1–0 Chiclana
58′⚽ GOAL · 13' Bollullos 1–0 Chiclana
61′⚽ GOAL · 13' Bollullos 1–0 Chiclana
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Bollullos 2–0 Chiclana
FTFULL TIME Bollullos 2–0 Chiclana
FTBollullos 2–0 Chiclana · Bollullos win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bollullos win48%

Draw28%

Chiclana win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bollullos winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Bollullos a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bollullos win	48%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Chiclana win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Bollullos or draw	76%	–	–
Bollullos clean sheet	38%	–	–
Chiclana clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.9 7.8 4.1 1 12.1 13.0 5.9 2 9.4 8.9 4.3 3 4.6 4.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bollullos down, Chiclana across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,481 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bollullos at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Chiclana away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Bollullos, 0.96 for Chiclana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CHI 2–2 BOL · BOL 2–1 CHI

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

BOLLULLOS

LLDLLD0–2 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–2

CHICLANA

LWDLWD1–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dos Hermanas	5	+11	13
2	Utrera	5	+2	12
3	Betis C	5	+5	10
4	Portuense	5	+4	10
5	Pozoblanco	5	+4	9
6	Egabrense	5	+2	8
7	Chiclana	5	+1	8
8	Tomares	5	+1	8
9	San Roque Lepe	5	−1	7
10	Xerez Deportivo	5	−1	7
11	Linense	5	−1	6
12	Conil	5	−3	6
13	Cádiz II	5	0	5
14	Sevilla III	5	−2	5
15	Recreativo Huelva	5	−4	4
16	Ceuta II	5	−7	4
17	Bollullos	5	−4	2
18	Córdoba II	5	−7	1