Viveiro v Villalbés prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Viveiro 1–1 Villalbés VILLALBÉS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Villalbés win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.674

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Villalbés win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Villalbés 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 29–33–37
1′KICK-OFF Viveiro v Villalbés
12′Villalbés find the net on 12′. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–19–71
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Viveiro 0–1 Villalbés
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Villalbés win: 37% at kick-off, 71% now
13′We said Villalbés at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 9–19–71
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 7–20–73
37′We said Villalbés at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
45′HALF-TIME Viveiro 0–1 Villalbés
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Villalbés win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
46′SECOND HALF Viveiro 0–1 Villalbés
57′A goal for Viveiro on 57′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 20–55–24
57′We said Villalbés at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 20–55–24
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Viveiro 1–1 Villalbés
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Villalbés win: 37% at kick-off, 24% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Villalbés win 24%)
67′We said Villalbés at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 16–65–19
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Villalbés win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
75′We said Villalbés at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 12–74–14
81′We said Villalbés at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Villalbés win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
88′We said Villalbés at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Viveiro 1–1 Villalbés
FTViveiro 1–1 Villalbés · Villalbés win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Villalbés just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Viveiro 30%, draw 33%, Villalbés 37%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Viveiro v VillalbésBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Viveiro win30%

Draw33%

Villalbés win37%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Viveiro

Villalbés

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Villalbés	6	+1	9
17	Viveiro	6	−4	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villalbés winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Villalbés a 37% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.1, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Viveiro v Villalbés~~0.91 – 1.06

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 9~~17 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Viveiro win	30%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Villalbés win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	31%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Viveiro or draw	63%	–	–
Viveiro clean sheet	35%	–	–
Villalbés clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.3%

0123450 15.3 13.8 7.8 2.8 1 11.7 14.3 7.0 2.5 2 5.8 6.0 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Viveiro down, Villalbés across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Viveiro at home: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Villalbés away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.91 goals for Viveiro, 1.06 for Villalbés. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~VIL 2–2 VIV · VIV 1–1 VIL · VIV 2–0 VIL · VIL 1–1 VIV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

VIVEIRO

LLLWDL0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1

VILLALBÉS

DWWDDL0–0 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	6	+5	13
2	Barco	6	+2	11
3	Antela	6	+1	11
4	Sarriana	6	+2	10
5	Portonovo SD	6	+2	10
6	Alondras	6	+1	10
7	Estradense	6	0	10
8	Lalin	6	0	10
9	Villalbés	6	+1	9
10	Atlético Arteixo	7	0	9
11	Silva	6	−1	8
12	Pontevedra II	6	+2	7
13	Celta de Vigo III	6	−2	7
14	Celtiga	6	−1	6
15	Somozas	6	−1	6
16	Coruña	6	−2	6
17	Viveiro	6	−4	4
18	Arenteiro	7	−5	4