Villalbés v Estradense prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Villalbés 1–2 Estradense VILLALBÉS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Villalbés win~~39%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.757

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.871

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Villalbés win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Villalbés 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
1′KICK-OFF Villalbés v Estradense
9′Little has changed for our model: Villalbés 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–32–29
45′HALF-TIME Villalbés 0–0 Estradense
46′SECOND HALF Villalbés 0–0 Estradense
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Villalbés 0–1 Estradense
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Villalbés 0–2 Estradense
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Villalbés 1–2 Estradense
FTFULL TIME Villalbés 1–2 Estradense
FTVillalbés 1–2 Estradense · Villalbés win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Villalbés win39%

Draw32%

Estradense win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Villalbés

Estradense

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Villalbés	5	+2	9
11	Estradense	5	−1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villalbés winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

39% The market47%

Us39%

~~Market~~47%

We make Villalbés a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · villalbés win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villalbés win	39%	47%	−8
Draw	32%	28%	+3
Estradense win	29%	25%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	35%	43%	−8
Both teams to score	43%	48%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	63%	67%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	16%	24%	−8
Villalbés or draw	71%	75%	−5
Villalbés clean sheet	39%	–	–
Estradense clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 13.3 10.6 5.5 1 13.0 14.2 6.3 2.0 2 8.1 7.6 3.6 3 3.2 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villalbés down, Estradense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,483 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.62 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Villalbés at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Estradense away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Villalbés, 0.96 for Estradense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~VIL 0–2 EST · EST 0–0 VIL · EST 4–1 VIL · VIL 2–1 EST

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

VILLALBÉS

LDWWDD1–6 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

ESTRADENSE

WLDWLW2–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	5	+4	10
2	Portonovo SD	6	+2	10
3	Barco	5	+2	10
4	Lalin	5	+2	10
5	Antela	5	+1	10
6	Sarriana	5	+2	9
7	Villalbés	5	+2	9
8	Alondras	5	+1	9
9	Pontevedra II	6	+2	7
10	Celta de Vigo III	5	0	7
11	Estradense	5	−1	7
12	Somozas	6	−1	6
13	Atlético Arteixo	6	−2	6
14	Celtiga	5	−1	5
15	Silva	5	−3	5
16	Viveiro	5	−3	4
17	Arenteiro	5	−3	3
18	Coruña	5	−4	3