Villalbés v Alondras prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VillalbésDrawAlondras

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Villalbés 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Villalbés are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Villalbés 44%, draw 30%, Alondras 26%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Villalbés v AlondrasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Villalbés win44%

Draw30%

Alondras win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Villalbés

Alondras

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Villalbés	7	+1	10
9	Alondras	7	0	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villalbés winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Villalbés a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Villalbés v Alondras~~1.29 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 10~~8 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villalbés win	44%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Alondras win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Villalbés or draw	74%	–	–
Villalbés clean sheet	39%	–	–
Alondras clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 12.0 9.0 4.8 1 12.8 13.9 6.0 2 9.0 8.3 3.9 3 3.9 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villalbés down, Alondras across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,501 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.12 goals a meeting; 0 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Villalbés at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Alondras away: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Villalbés, 0.94 for Alondras. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.12

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ALO 1–0 VIL · VIL 0–2 ALO · ALO 0–0 VIL · VIL 1–0 ALO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 13 Sept

VILLALBÉS

WWDDLD3–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

ALONDRAS

WWWLDL2–0 · 2–0 · 4–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	7	+6	16
2	Sarriana	8	+3	14
3	Lalin	7	+1	13
4	Barco	7	+2	12
5	Antela	7	+1	12
6	Portonovo SD	8	+1	11
7	Silva	7	0	11
8	Villalbés	7	+1	10
9	Alondras	7	0	10
10	Celtiga	8	0	10
11	Estradense	7	−1	10
12	Atlético Arteixo	7	0	9
13	Coruña	7	−1	9
14	Pontevedra II	7	+1	7
15	Somozas	8	−2	7
16	Celta de Vigo III	7	−3	7
17	Viveiro	7	−4	5
18	Arenteiro	7	−5	4