Somozas v Coruña prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Somozas 1–2 Coruña SOMOZAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Somozas win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.704

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Somozas are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Somozas 39%, draw 29%, Coruña 32%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Somozas v CoruñaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Somozas win39%

Draw29%

Coruña win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Somozas

Coruña

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Somozas	6	−1	6
16	Coruña	6	−2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · somozas winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Somozas a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Somozas v Coruña~~1.33 – 1.17

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 6~~15 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Somozas win	39%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Coruña win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Somozas or draw	68%	–	–
Somozas clean sheet	31%	–	–
Coruña clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 9.4 8.7 5.6 2.2 1 10.0 13.6 7.3 2.9 2 7.3 8.4 4.9 3 3.3 3.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Somozas down, Coruña across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Somozas at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Coruña away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Somozas, 1.17 for Coruña. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SOM 1–2 COR · COR 1–0 SOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept

SOMOZAS

DLDLWD0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

CORUÑA

LLLLWW2–3 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	6	+5	13
2	Barco	6	+2	11
3	Antela	6	+1	11
4	Silva	7	0	11
5	Sarriana	6	+2	10
6	Portonovo SD	6	+2	10
7	Alondras	6	+1	10
8	Villalbés	7	+1	10
9	Lalin	6	0	10
10	Estradense	7	−1	10
11	Atlético Arteixo	7	0	9
12	Celtiga	7	0	9
13	Pontevedra II	6	+2	7
14	Celta de Vigo III	7	−3	7
15	Somozas	6	−1	6
16	Coruña	6	−2	6
17	Viveiro	7	−4	5
18	Arenteiro	7	−5	4