Silva v Estradense prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:08

Silva 2–1 Estradense ESTRADENSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Estradense win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.700

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Estradense win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Estradense 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 32–29–39
1′KICK-OFF Silva v Estradense
20′A goal for Estradense on 20′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–20–69
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Silva 0–1 Estradense
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Estradense win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
21′We said Estradense at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 0–1 · 11–20–69
22′We said Estradense at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 11–20–70
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 9–20–71
45′HALF-TIME Silva 0–1 Estradense
46′SECOND HALF Silva 0–1 Estradense
51′We said Estradense at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Estradense win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
65′We said Estradense at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
65′Silva score on 65′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 20–56–24
65′We said Estradense at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 20–56–24
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Silva 1–1 Estradense
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Estradense win: 39% at kick-off, 24% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Estradense win 24%)
72′We said Estradense at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 17–64–19
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Estradense win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
74′Silva find the net on 74′. 2–1. 2–1 · 82–16–2
74′We said Estradense at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–1 · 82–16–2
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Silva 2–1 Estradense
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Estradense win: 39% at kick-off, 2% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Silva win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 16%)
75′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 83–15–2
FTFULL TIME Silva 2–1 Estradense
FTSilva 2–1 Estradense · Estradense win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Estradense are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Silva 32%, draw 29%, Estradense 39%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Silva v EstradenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Silva win32%

Draw29%

Estradense win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:30

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Silva

Estradense

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Estradense	6	0	10
11	Silva	6	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · estradense winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Estradense a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Silva v Estradense~~1.19 – 1.35

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 10~~11 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Silva win	32%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Estradense win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Silva or draw	61%	–	–
Silva clean sheet	26%	–	–
Estradense clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 9.0 9.7 7.2 3.3 1 8.4 13.5 8.4 3.8 2 5.6 7.4 5.0 2.3 3 2.2 3.0 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Silva down, Estradense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Silva at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Estradense away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Silva, 1.35 for Estradense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~EST 2–1 SIL · SIL 1–1 EST · SIL 0–0 EST · EST 0–0 SIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept

SILVA

DWLLDW1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 3–1

ESTRADENSE

LDWLWW1–3 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	6	+5	13
2	Barco	6	+2	11
3	Antela	6	+1	11
4	Sarriana	6	+2	10
5	Portonovo SD	6	+2	10
6	Alondras	6	+1	10
7	Estradense	6	0	10
8	Lalin	6	0	10
9	Villalbés	6	+1	9
10	Atlético Arteixo	7	0	9
11	Silva	6	−1	8
12	Pontevedra II	6	+2	7
13	Celta de Vigo III	6	−2	7
14	Celtiga	6	−1	6
15	Somozas	6	−1	6
16	Coruña	6	−2	6
17	Viveiro	6	−4	4
18	Arenteiro	7	−5	4