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Model 1.1

Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 › Sarriana v Arenteiro

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Sarriana v Arenteiro

Sarriana
3–3Full time
Arenteiro

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47
Sarriana 3–3 Arenteiro SARRIANA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sarriana win53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.897

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 4 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sarriana win at 53%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Sarriana was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–23
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Sarriana was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–24–23
  4. 22′A goal for Sarriana on 11′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 50–28–23
  5. 23′A goal for Sarriana on 11′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 49–28–22
  6. 43′33′ and it is 2–1: Sarriana have scored. 2–1 · 79–16–5
  7. 44′33′ and it is 2–1: Sarriana have scored. 2–1 · 79–16–5
  8. 45′Arenteiro find the net on 45′. 2–2. 2–2 · 42–37–21
  9. 47′Arenteiro find the net on 45′. 2–2. 2–2 · 41–38–21
  10. 67′62′ and it is 3–3: Arenteiro have scored. 3–3 · 30–54–16
  11. 83′62′ and it is 3–3: Arenteiro have scored. 3–3 · 12–81–7
  12. 90′We said Sarriana at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 3–3 · 0–100–0
  13. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Sarriana win: 53% at kick-off, 12% now
  14. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Sarriana win: 53% at kick-off, 30% now
  15. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Sarriana win: 53% at kick-off, 0% now
  16. FTFULL TIME Sarriana 3–3 Arenteiro
  17. FTSarriana 3–3 Arenteiro · Sarriana win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sarriana win53%
Draw25%
Arenteiro win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sarriana

Arenteiro

7Days since last match8
1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Sarriana5+29
17Arenteiro5−33

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sarriana winPublished 11 Oct 17:22
53% The market–
Us53%

We make Sarriana a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sarriana win53%––
Draw25%––
Arenteiro win22%––
Over 2.5 goals54%––
Both teams to score55%––
Over 1.5 goals78%––
Over 3.5 goals32%––
Sarriana or draw78%––
Sarriana clean sheet35%––
Arenteiro clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%
0123450 6.8 5.5 3.4 1 9.4 11.6 5.8 2.1 2 9.0 9.5 5.1 3 5.4 5.7 3.0 4 2.5 2.6 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sarriana down, Arenteiro across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

SARRIANA

LWWLWL2–4 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 1–2

ARENTEIRO

LLWLL0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Boiro5+410
2Portonovo SD6+210
3Barco5+210
4Lalin5+210
5Antela5+110
6Sarriana5+29
7Villalbés5+29
8Alondras5+19
9Pontevedra II6+27
10Celta de Vigo III507
11Estradense5−17
12Somozas6−16
13Atlético Arteixo6−26
14Celtiga5−15
15Silva5−35
16Viveiro5−34
17Arenteiro5−33
18Coruña5−43

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.