Portonovo SD v Antela prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Portonovo SD 0–0 Antela PORTONOVO SD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Portonovo SD win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.738

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Portonovo SD win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Portonovo SD was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–29
1′KICK-OFF Portonovo SD v Antela
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Portonovo SD win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Portonovo SD 0–0 Antela
46′SECOND HALF Portonovo SD 0–0 Antela
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Portonovo SD win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
55′We said Portonovo SD at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–50–22
63′We said Portonovo SD at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–19
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Portonovo SD win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
71′We said Portonovo SD at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–65–15
77′We said Portonovo SD at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–12
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Portonovo SD win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
83′We said Portonovo SD at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
90′We said Portonovo SD at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Portonovo SD 0–0 Antela
FTPortonovo SD 0–0 Antela · Portonovo SD win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Portonovo SD are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Portonovo SD 40%, draw 30%, Antela 29%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Portonovo SD v AntelaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Portonovo SD win40%

Draw30%

Antela win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Portonovo SD

Antela

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Antela	6	+1	11
6	Portonovo SD	6	+2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · portonovo sd winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Portonovo SD a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Portonovo SD v Antela~~1.26 – 1.03

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 11~~6 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Portonovo SD win	40%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Antela win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Portonovo SD or draw	71%	–	–
Portonovo SD clean sheet	36%	–	–
Antela clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 11.6 9.5 5.4 1 11.8 13.8 6.6 2.3 2 8.0 8.0 4.1 3 3.4 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Portonovo SD down, Antela across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Portonovo SD at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Antela away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Portonovo SD, 1.03 for Antela. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept

PORTONOVO SD

DWLWLW0–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

ANTELA

WLDWWD1–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	6	+5	13
2	Barco	6	+2	11
3	Antela	6	+1	11
4	Silva	7	0	11
5	Sarriana	6	+2	10
6	Portonovo SD	6	+2	10
7	Alondras	6	+1	10
8	Villalbés	7	+1	10
9	Lalin	6	0	10
10	Estradense	7	−1	10
11	Atlético Arteixo	7	0	9
12	Celtiga	7	0	9
13	Pontevedra II	6	+2	7
14	Celta de Vigo III	7	−3	7
15	Somozas	6	−1	6
16	Coruña	6	−2	6
17	Viveiro	7	−4	5
18	Arenteiro	7	−5	4