Pontevedra II v Silva prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Pontevedra IIDrawSilva

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Pontevedra II 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Pontevedra II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Pontevedra II 37%, draw 28%, Silva 35%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Pontevedra II v SilvaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Pontevedra II win37%

Draw28%

Silva win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pontevedra II

Silva

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Silva	7	0	11
14	Pontevedra II	7	+1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pontevedra ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Pontevedra II a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pontevedra II v Silva~~1.33 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 11~~14 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pontevedra II win	37%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Silva win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Pontevedra II or draw	65%	–	–
Pontevedra II clean sheet	28%	–	–
Silva clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.4 8.4 6.1 2.7 1 8.7 13.2 7.9 3.5 2 6.4 8.1 5.2 2.3 3 2.9 3.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pontevedra II down, Silva across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,501 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pontevedra II at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Silva away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Pontevedra II, 1.30 for Silva. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PON 2–3 SIL · SIL 0–0 PON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

PONTEVEDRA II

LDWLLL1–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

SILVA

WLLDWW2–1 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	7	+6	16
2	Lalin	7	+1	13
3	Barco	7	+2	12
4	Antela	7	+1	12
5	Sarriana	7	+2	11
6	Portonovo SD	7	+2	11
7	Silva	7	0	11
8	Villalbés	7	+1	10
9	Alondras	7	0	10
10	Estradense	7	−1	10
11	Atlético Arteixo	7	0	9
12	Celtiga	7	0	9
13	Coruña	7	−1	9
14	Pontevedra II	7	+1	7
15	Celta de Vigo III	7	−3	7
16	Somozas	7	−2	6
17	Viveiro	7	−4	5
18	Arenteiro	7	−5	4