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Pontevedra II v Portonovo SD

Pontevedra II

0–1Full time

Portonovo SD

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 23:31

Pontevedra II 0–1 Portonovo SD PORTONOVO SD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Portonovo SD win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.575

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Pontevedra II win34%

Draw27%

Portonovo SD win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · portonovo sd winPublished 10 Oct 22:52

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Portonovo SD a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pontevedra II win	34%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Portonovo SD win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Pontevedra II or draw	62%	–	–
Pontevedra II clean sheet	26%	–	–
Portonovo SD clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.1 8.5 6.5 3.1 1 8.0 12.8 8.2 3.9 2 5.8 7.7 5.3 2.5 3 2.6 3.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pontevedra II down, Portonovo SD across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,481 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.2% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Pontevedra II at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Portonovo SD away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Pontevedra II, 1.39 for Portonovo SD. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

PONTEVEDRA II

LWLDWL0–4 · 6–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

PORTONOVO SD

DWLWL0–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	5	+4	10
2	Barco	5	+2	10
3	Lalin	5	+2	10
4	Antela	5	+1	10
5	Sarriana	5	+2	9
6	Villalbés	5	+2	9
7	Alondras	5	+1	9
8	Pontevedra II	5	+3	7
9	Portonovo SD	5	+1	7
10	Celta de Vigo III	5	0	7
11	Estradense	5	−1	7
12	Celtiga	5	−1	5
13	Somozas	5	−1	5
14	Atlético Arteixo	5	−2	5
15	Silva	5	−3	5
16	Viveiro	5	−3	4
17	Arenteiro	5	−3	3
18	Coruña	5	−4	3