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Lalin v Silva

Lalin

1–3Full time

Silva

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Lalin 1–3 Silva LALIN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lalin win~~48%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.905

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.692

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lalin win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lalin 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–24
2′Little has changed for our model: Lalin 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–24
22′Lalin find the net on 15′. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–17–7
42′Lalin are down to ten from 40′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 79–17–5
45′Lalin are down to ten from 40′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 79–17–4
45′We said Lalin at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–4
48′A goal for Silva on 46′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 36–43–20
68′60′ and it is 1–2: Silva have scored. 1–2 · 4–21–75
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Silva win 20%)
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Lalin win: 48% at kick-off, 4% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Silva win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 21%)
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Lalin win: 48% at kick-off, 36% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Lalin win: 48% at kick-off, 4% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Silva win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 21%)
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Lalin win: 48% at kick-off, 36% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Silva win 20%)
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Lalin win: 48% at kick-off, 4% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Silva win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 21%)
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Lalin win: 48% at kick-off, 36% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Silva win 20%)
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Lalin win: 48% at kick-off, 4% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Silva win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 21%)
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Lalin win: 48% at kick-off, 36% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Silva win 20%)
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Lalin win: 48% at kick-off, 36% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Silva win 20%)
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Lalin win: 48% at kick-off, 4% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Silva win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 21%)
84′Silva find the net on 71′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′Silva find the net on 71′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Lalin 1–3 Silva
FTLalin 1–3 Silva · Lalin win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Lalin win48%

Draw28%

Silva win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lalin

Silva

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Lalin	5	+2	10
15	Silva	5	−3	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lalin winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

48% The market39%

Us48%

~~Market~~39%

We make Lalin a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lalin win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lalin win	48%	39%	+9
Draw	28%	29%	0
Silva win	23%	32%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	42%	45%	−2
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	69%	69%	0
Over 3.5 goals	22%	24%	−3
Lalin or draw	77%	68%	+9
Lalin clean sheet	40%	–	–
Silva clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.5 7.7 4.0 1 12.6 13.1 5.7 2 9.7 8.8 4.1 3 4.8 4.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lalin down, Silva across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,483 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Lalin at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 2). Silva away: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Lalin, 0.92 for Silva. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

LALIN

WWLDW2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

SILVA

DDWLLD2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	5	+4	10
2	Portonovo SD	6	+2	10
3	Barco	5	+2	10
4	Lalin	5	+2	10
5	Antela	5	+1	10
6	Sarriana	5	+2	9
7	Villalbés	5	+2	9
8	Alondras	5	+1	9
9	Pontevedra II	6	+2	7
10	Celta de Vigo III	5	0	7
11	Estradense	5	−1	7
12	Somozas	6	−1	6
13	Atlético Arteixo	6	−2	6
14	Celtiga	5	−1	5
15	Silva	5	−3	5
16	Viveiro	5	−3	4
17	Arenteiro	5	−3	3
18	Coruña	5	−4	3