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Lalin v Pontevedra II

Lalin
1–0Full time
Pontevedra II

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31
Lalin 1–0 Pontevedra II LALIN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Lalin win49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.387

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lalin win at 49%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Lalin 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–23
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Lalin v Pontevedra II
  4. 27′Lalin score on 27′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
  5. 27′We said Lalin at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
  6. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Lalin 1–0 Pontevedra II
  7. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Lalin win: 49% at kick-off, 77% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–6
  9. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Lalin win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Lalin 1–0 Pontevedra II
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Lalin 1–0 Pontevedra II
  12. 49′We said Lalin at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  13. 68′We said Lalin at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  14. 71′Pontevedra II are down to ten from 71′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 86–12–1
  15. 71′🟥 RED CARD · 71' Pontevedra II
  16. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Lalin win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
  17. 78′We said Lalin at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  18. 85′We said Lalin at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  19. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Lalin win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
  20. FTFULL TIME Lalin 1–0 Pontevedra II
  21. FTLalin 1–0 Pontevedra II · Lalin win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lalin are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lalin 49%, draw 27%, Pontevedra II 23%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Lalin v Pontevedra IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lalin win49%
Draw27%
Pontevedra II win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lalin

Pontevedra II

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Lalin6010
13Pontevedra II6+27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lalin winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
49% The market–
Us49%

We make Lalin a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Lalin v Pontevedra II1.55 – 0.98
Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 10 v 79 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Lalin win49%––
Draw27%––
Pontevedra II win23%––
Over 2.5 goals46%––
Both teams to score49%––
Over 1.5 goals72%––
Over 3.5 goals25%––
Lalin or draw77%––
Lalin clean sheet38%––
Pontevedra II clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%
0123450 9.4 7.2 4.0 1 11.4 12.7 5.8 2 9.4 8.9 4.3 3 4.9 4.6 2.2 4 2.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Lalin down, Pontevedra II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

LALIN

WWLDWL2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–3

PONTEVEDRA II

WLDWLL6–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Boiro6+513
2Barco6+211
3Antela6+111
4Silva7011
5Sarriana6+210
6Portonovo SD6+210
7Alondras6+110
8Villalbés7+110
9Lalin6010
10Estradense7−110
11Atlético Arteixo709
12Celtiga709
13Pontevedra II6+27
14Celta de Vigo III7−37
15Somozas6−16
16Coruña6−26
17Viveiro7−45
18Arenteiro7−54

The competition's standings before kick-off.