Estradense v Viveiro prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

EstradenseDrawViveiro

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Estradense 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Estradense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Estradense 50%, draw 28%, Viveiro 21%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Estradense v ViveiroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Estradense win50%

Draw28%

Viveiro win21%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Estradense

Viveiro

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Estradense	7	−1	10
17	Viveiro	7	−4	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · estradense winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Estradense a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Estradense v Viveiro~~1.47 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 5~~10 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Estradense win	50%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Viveiro win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Estradense or draw	79%	–	–
Estradense clean sheet	43%	–	–
Viveiro clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 10.9 7.4 3.6 1 13.3 13.1 5.2 2 10.5 8.9 3.8 3 5.2 4.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Estradense down, Viveiro across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,499 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Estradense at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Viveiro away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Estradense, 0.86 for Viveiro. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~EST 2–0 VIV · VIV 0–3 EST · EST 2–0 VIV · VIV 3–4 EST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

ESTRADENSE

DWLWWL1–1 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

VIVEIRO

LLWDLD0–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	7	+6	16
2	Lalin	7	+1	13
3	Barco	7	+2	12
4	Antela	7	+1	12
5	Sarriana	7	+2	11
6	Portonovo SD	7	+2	11
7	Silva	7	0	11
8	Villalbés	7	+1	10
9	Alondras	7	0	10
10	Estradense	7	−1	10
11	Atlético Arteixo	7	0	9
12	Celtiga	7	0	9
13	Coruña	7	−1	9
14	Pontevedra II	7	+1	7
15	Celta de Vigo III	7	−3	7
16	Somozas	7	−2	6
17	Viveiro	7	−4	5
18	Arenteiro	7	−5	4