Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 › Coruña v Celta de Vigo III

Coruña v Celta de Vigo III

Coruña

3–1Full time

Celta de Vigo III

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:05

Coruña 3–1 Celta de Vigo III CORUÑA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Coruña win~~40%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.552

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.530

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Coruña win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Coruña was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–24–36
1′KICK-OFF Coruña v Celta de Vigo III
10′Much as we predicted: Coruña was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–35
16′⚽ GOAL · 18' Coruña 0–0 Celta de Vigo III
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Coruña 0–1 Celta de Vigo III
20′A goal for Celta de Vigo III on 18′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–21–62
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Coruña 0–1 Celta de Vigo III
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Coruña win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Celta de Vigo III win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Coruña win 17%)
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Coruña win: 40% at kick-off, 39% now
21′A goal for Celta de Vigo III on 18′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–22–62
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Coruña win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Coruña win: 40% at kick-off, 39% now
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Coruña 1–1 Celta de Vigo III
37′24′ and it is 1–1: Coruña have scored. 1–1 · 35–32–32
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Coruña win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Coruña win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Coruña win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Coruña win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Coruña win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Coruña win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Coruña win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Coruña win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Coruña win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Coruña win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
42′24′ and it is 1–1: Coruña have scored. 1–1 · 34–34–31
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Coruña win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Coruña win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Coruña win: 40% at kick-off, 34% now
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Coruña 2–1 Celta de Vigo III
45′HALF-TIME Coruña 2–1 Celta de Vigo III
46′SECOND HALF Coruña 2–1 Celta de Vigo III
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Coruña 3–1 Celta de Vigo III
FTFULL TIME Coruña 3–1 Celta de Vigo III
FTCoruña 3–1 Celta de Vigo III · Coruña win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Coruña win40%

Draw25%

Celta de Vigo III win35%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Coruña

Celta de Vigo III

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Celta de Vigo III	5	0	7
18	Coruña	5	−4	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · coruña winPublished 11 Oct 11:44

40% The market41%

Us40%

~~Market~~41%

We make Coruña a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · coruña win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Coruña win	40%	41%	−1
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Celta de Vigo III win	35%	31%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	60%	50%	+10
Both teams to score	63%	55%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	82%	73%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	38%	30%	+8
Coruña or draw	65%	69%	−4
Coruña clean sheet	22%	–	–
Celta de Vigo III clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.3 5.9 5.1 2.6 1 6.4 11.4 8.0 4.0 2 5.7 8.5 6.4 3.2 3 3.1 4.6 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Coruña down, Celta de Vigo III across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,483 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Coruña at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Celta de Vigo III away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Coruña, 1.51 for Celta de Vigo III. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CEL 1–1 COR · COR 1–1 CEL

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

CORUÑA

WLLLLW4–1 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–0

CELTA DE VIGO III

WLWDLW5–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	5	+4	10
2	Portonovo SD	6	+2	10
3	Barco	5	+2	10
4	Lalin	5	+2	10
5	Antela	5	+1	10
6	Sarriana	5	+2	9
7	Villalbés	5	+2	9
8	Alondras	5	+1	9
9	Pontevedra II	6	+2	7
10	Celta de Vigo III	5	0	7
11	Estradense	5	−1	7
12	Somozas	6	−1	6
13	Atlético Arteixo	6	−2	6
14	Celtiga	5	−1	5
15	Silva	5	−3	5
16	Viveiro	5	−3	4
17	Arenteiro	5	−3	3
18	Coruña	5	−4	3