Coruña v Arenteiro prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CoruñaDrawArenteiro

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Coruña 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Coruña are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Coruña 51%, draw 25%, Arenteiro 24%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Coruña v ArenteiroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Coruña win51%

Draw25%

Arenteiro win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:30

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Coruña

Arenteiro

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Coruña	7	−1	9
18	Arenteiro	7	−5	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · coruña winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Coruña a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Coruña v Arenteiro~~1.79 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 4~~13 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Coruña win	51%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Arenteiro win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Coruña or draw	76%	–	–
Coruña clean sheet	32%	–	–
Arenteiro clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.4 5.3 3.6 1 8.5 11.6 6.2 2.5 2 8.3 9.4 5.5 2.2 3 4.9 5.6 3.3 4 2.3 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Coruña down, Arenteiro across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,501 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Coruña at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Arenteiro away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Coruña, 1.17 for Arenteiro. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 13 Sept

CORUÑA

LLLWWW2–3 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–1

ARENTEIRO

LWLLDL1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	7	+6	16
2	Lalin	7	+1	13
3	Barco	7	+2	12
4	Antela	7	+1	12
5	Sarriana	7	+2	11
6	Portonovo SD	7	+2	11
7	Silva	7	0	11
8	Villalbés	7	+1	10
9	Alondras	7	0	10
10	Estradense	7	−1	10
11	Atlético Arteixo	7	0	9
12	Celtiga	7	0	9
13	Coruña	7	−1	9
14	Pontevedra II	7	+1	7
15	Celta de Vigo III	7	−3	7
16	Somozas	7	−2	6
17	Viveiro	7	−4	5
18	Arenteiro	7	−5	4