Celtiga v Somozas prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Celtiga 1–1 Somozas CELTIGA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Celtiga win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.746

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Celtiga win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Celtiga was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
1′KICK-OFF Celtiga v Somozas
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Celtiga win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME Celtiga 0–0 Somozas
46′SECOND HALF Celtiga 0–0 Somozas
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Celtiga win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
55′We said Celtiga at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–49–23
63′We said Celtiga at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–56–20
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Celtiga win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
71′We said Celtiga at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–65–16
78′We said Celtiga at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–75–11
81′Celtiga score on 81′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 91–9–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Celtiga 1–0 Somozas
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Celtiga win: 40% at kick-off, 91% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Celtiga win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 80%)
82′We published Celtiga at 40%. Our model now makes it 92%. 1–0 · 92–8–0
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Celtiga win: 40% at kick-off, 92% now
85′Somozas find the net on 85′. 1–1. 1–1 · 7–87–6
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Celtiga 1–1 Somozas
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Celtiga win: 40% at kick-off, 7% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Celtiga win 94%)
86′We said Celtiga at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–1 · 7–88–5
86′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–1 · 7–88–5
90′We said Celtiga at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
93′A red card for Somozas on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 2–96–2
93′🟥 RED CARD · 90+2' Somozas
94′PENALTY MISSED · 90+4' Celtiga
FTFULL TIME Celtiga 1–1 Somozas
FTCeltiga 1–1 Somozas · Celtiga win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Celtiga are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Celtiga 40%, draw 30%, Somozas 30%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Celtiga v SomozasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Celtiga win40%

Draw30%

Somozas win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Celtiga

Somozas

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Celtiga	7	0	9
16	Somozas	7	−2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · celtiga winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Celtiga a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Celtiga v Somozas~~1.29 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 6~~12 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Celtiga win	40%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Somozas win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Celtiga or draw	70%	–	–
Celtiga clean sheet	34%	–	–
Somozas clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 10.6 9.2 5.5 1 11.1 13.9 6.9 2.5 2 7.8 8.2 4.4 3 3.4 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Celtiga down, Somozas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,499 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Celtiga at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Somozas away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Celtiga, 1.08 for Somozas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SOM 1–1 CEL · CEL 5–0 SOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

CELTIGA

LLWDDW0–2 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–1

SOMOZAS

LDLWDL0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	7	+6	16
2	Lalin	7	+1	13
3	Barco	7	+2	12
4	Antela	7	+1	12
5	Sarriana	7	+2	11
6	Portonovo SD	7	+2	11
7	Silva	7	0	11
8	Villalbés	7	+1	10
9	Alondras	7	0	10
10	Estradense	7	−1	10
11	Atlético Arteixo	7	0	9
12	Celtiga	7	0	9
13	Coruña	7	−1	9
14	Pontevedra II	7	+1	7
15	Celta de Vigo III	7	−3	7
16	Somozas	7	−2	6
17	Viveiro	7	−4	5
18	Arenteiro	7	−5	4