Celtiga v Alondras prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Celtiga 0–0 Alondras CELTIGA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Celtiga win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.807

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Celtiga win41%

Draw27%

Alondras win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Celtiga

Alondras

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Alondras	5	+1	9
14	Celtiga	5	−1	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · celtiga winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Celtiga a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Celtiga win	41%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Alondras win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Celtiga or draw	68%	–	–
Celtiga clean sheet	28%	–	–
Alondras clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.2 7.1 5.2 2.2 1 8.4 12.6 7.6 3.3 2 6.9 8.7 5.6 2.4 3 3.5 4.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Celtiga down, Alondras across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,483 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Celtiga at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Alondras away: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Celtiga, 1.29 for Alondras. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CEL 0–1 ALO · ALO 1–0 CEL

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

CELTIGA

LDLLWD2–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 0–0

ALONDRAS

WLWWWL2–0 · 2–6 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 4–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	5	+4	10
2	Portonovo SD	6	+2	10
3	Barco	5	+2	10
4	Lalin	5	+2	10
5	Antela	5	+1	10
6	Sarriana	5	+2	9
7	Villalbés	5	+2	9
8	Alondras	5	+1	9
9	Pontevedra II	6	+2	7
10	Celta de Vigo III	5	0	7
11	Estradense	5	−1	7
12	Somozas	6	−1	6
13	Atlético Arteixo	6	−2	6
14	Celtiga	5	−1	5
15	Silva	5	−3	5
16	Viveiro	5	−3	4
17	Arenteiro	5	−3	3
18	Coruña	5	−4	3