Boiro v Viveiro prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Boiro 1–0 Viveiro BOIRO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Boiro win~~53%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.332

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.319

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Boiro win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Boiro 53% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–26–20
1′KICK-OFF Boiro v Viveiro
3′Little has changed for our model: Boiro 53% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–27–20
44′We said Boiro at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–41–18
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Boiro win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Boiro win: 53% at kick-off, 49% now
45′We said Boiro at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–42–18
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Boiro win: 53% at kick-off, 49% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Boiro win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
45′HALF-TIME Boiro 0–0 Viveiro
46′SECOND HALF Boiro 0–0 Viveiro
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Boiro win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Boiro win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Boiro win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Boiro win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Boiro win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Boiro 1–0 Viveiro
90′🟥 RED CARD · 91' Viveiro
90′⚽ GOAL · 74' Boiro 2–0 Viveiro
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Boiro 2–0 Viveiro
90′PENALTY MISSED · 94' Boiro
FTFULL TIME Boiro 1–0 Viveiro
FTBoiro 1–0 Viveiro · Boiro win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Boiro win53%

Draw28%

Viveiro win19%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Boiro

Viveiro

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	5	+4	10
16	Viveiro	5	−3	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · boiro winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

53% The market54%

Us53%

~~Market~~54%

We make Boiro a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · boiro win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Boiro win	53%	54%	−1
Draw	28%	25%	+2
Viveiro win	19%	21%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	41%	49%	−8
Both teams to score	44%	51%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	68%	71%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	29%	−8
Boiro or draw	81%	79%	+2
Boiro clean sheet	45%	–	–
Viveiro clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.1%

0123450 10.9 7.1 3.2 1 14.1 12.7 4.7 2 11.2 8.9 3.6 3 5.7 4.5 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Boiro down, Viveiro across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,483 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Boiro at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Viveiro away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Boiro, 0.80 for Viveiro. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VIV 1–0 BOI · BOI 0–0 VIV · VIV 0–1 BOI · BOI 2–1 VIV

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

BOIRO

DWWWDL2–2 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–3

VIVEIRO

LLLLWD0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	5	+4	10
2	Portonovo SD	6	+2	10
3	Barco	5	+2	10
4	Lalin	5	+2	10
5	Antela	5	+1	10
6	Sarriana	5	+2	9
7	Villalbés	5	+2	9
8	Alondras	5	+1	9
9	Pontevedra II	6	+2	7
10	Celta de Vigo III	5	0	7
11	Estradense	5	−1	7
12	Somozas	6	−1	6
13	Atlético Arteixo	6	−2	6
14	Celtiga	5	−1	5
15	Silva	5	−3	5
16	Viveiro	5	−3	4
17	Arenteiro	5	−3	3
18	Coruña	5	−4	3