Boiro v Celta de Vigo III prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BoiroDrawCelta de Vigo III

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Boiro 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Boiro are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Boiro 47%, draw 27%, Celta de Vigo III 27%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Boiro v Celta de Vigo IIIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Boiro win47%

Draw27%

Celta de Vigo III win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Boiro

Celta de Vigo III

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · boiro winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Boiro a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Boiro v Celta de Vigo III~~1.59 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 7~~1 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Boiro win	47%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Celta de Vigo III win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Boiro or draw	73%	–	–
Boiro clean sheet	32%	–	–
Celta de Vigo III clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.6 6.5 4.3 1 9.4 12.7 6.7 2.6 2 8.2 9.2 5.3 2.0 3 4.4 4.9 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Boiro down, Celta de Vigo III across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,501 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Boiro at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Celta de Vigo III away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Boiro, 1.14 for Celta de Vigo III. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BOI 1–1 CEL · CEL 1–0 BOI · BOI 2–1 CEL · CEL 5–2 BOI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

BOIRO

WWDLWW2–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–0

CELTA DE VIGO III

WDLWLL2–1 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	7	+6	16
2	Lalin	7	+1	13
3	Barco	7	+2	12
4	Antela	7	+1	12
5	Sarriana	7	+2	11
6	Portonovo SD	7	+2	11
7	Silva	7	0	11
8	Villalbés	7	+1	10
9	Alondras	7	0	10
10	Estradense	7	−1	10
11	Atlético Arteixo	7	0	9
12	Celtiga	7	0	9
13	Coruña	7	−1	9
14	Pontevedra II	7	+1	7
15	Celta de Vigo III	7	−3	7
16	Somozas	7	−2	6
17	Viveiro	7	−4	5
18	Arenteiro	7	−5	4