Barco v Sarriana prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

Barco 1–1 Sarriana SARRIANA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sarriana win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.796

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sarriana win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sarriana 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 34–27–38
1′KICK-OFF Barco v Sarriana
34′Barco find the net on 34′. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–22–12
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Barco 1–0 Sarriana
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Sarriana win: 38% at kick-off, 12% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Barco win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Sarriana win 12%)
35′We said Sarriana at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 1–0 · 66–22–12
35′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 66–22–12
45′HALF-TIME Barco 1–0 Sarriana
46′We said Sarriana at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
47′SECOND HALF Barco 1–0 Sarriana
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Sarriana win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
65′We said Sarriana at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
72′A goal for Sarriana on 72′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 18–62–20
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Barco 1–1 Sarriana
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Sarriana win: 38% at kick-off, 20% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Draw is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Barco win 18%)
73′We said Sarriana at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 18–64–19
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Sarriana win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
FTFULL TIME Barco 1–1 Sarriana
FTBarco 1–1 Sarriana · Sarriana win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sarriana just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Barco 35%, draw 27%, Sarriana 38%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Barco v SarrianaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Barco win35%

Draw27%

Sarriana win38%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barco

Sarriana

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Barco	6	+2	11
5	Sarriana	6	+2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sarriana winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Sarriana a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Barco v Sarriana~~1.34 – 1.42

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 10~~2 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barco win	35%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Sarriana win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Barco or draw	62%	–	–
Barco clean sheet	25%	–	–
Sarriana clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.5 8.1 6.4 3.1 1 7.6 12.8 8.4 4.0 2 5.7 7.9 5.6 2.7 3 2.6 3.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barco down, Sarriana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Barco at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sarriana away: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Barco, 1.42 for Sarriana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept

BARCO

WLWDWD1–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

SARRIANA

WWLWLD3–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	6	+5	13
2	Barco	6	+2	11
3	Antela	6	+1	11
4	Silva	7	0	11
5	Sarriana	6	+2	10
6	Portonovo SD	6	+2	10
7	Alondras	6	+1	10
8	Villalbés	7	+1	10
9	Lalin	6	0	10
10	Estradense	7	−1	10
11	Atlético Arteixo	7	0	9
12	Celtiga	7	0	9
13	Pontevedra II	6	+2	7
14	Celta de Vigo III	7	−3	7
15	Somozas	6	−1	6
16	Coruña	6	−2	6
17	Viveiro	7	−4	5
18	Arenteiro	7	−5	4