Atlético Arteixo v Barco prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Atlético ArteixoDrawBarco

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Atlético Arteixo 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlético Arteixo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlético Arteixo 47%, draw 28%, Barco 26%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Atlético Arteixo v BarcoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Atlético Arteixo win47%

Draw28%

Barco win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:30

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlético Arteixo

Barco

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Barco	7	+2	12
11	Atlético Arteixo	7	0	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético arteixo winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Atlético Arteixo a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlético Arteixo v Barco~~1.52 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 12~~11 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético Arteixo win	47%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Barco win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Atlético Arteixo or draw	74%	–	–
Atlético Arteixo clean sheet	35%	–	–
Barco clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 8.7 7.1 4.3 1 10.5 13.0 6.4 2.3 2 8.7 9.1 4.8 3 4.4 4.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Arteixo down, Barco across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,501 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlético Arteixo at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Barco away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Atlético Arteixo, 1.06 for Barco. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ATL 5–1 BAR · BAR 0–3 ATL · BAR 1–2 ATL · ATL 1–1 BAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

ATLÉTICO ARTEIXO

DWLLDW1–1 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 3–1

BARCO

LWDWDD1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	7	+6	16
2	Lalin	7	+1	13
3	Barco	7	+2	12
4	Antela	7	+1	12
5	Sarriana	7	+2	11
6	Portonovo SD	7	+2	11
7	Silva	7	0	11
8	Villalbés	7	+1	10
9	Alondras	7	0	10
10	Estradense	7	−1	10
11	Atlético Arteixo	7	0	9
12	Celtiga	7	0	9
13	Coruña	7	−1	9
14	Pontevedra II	7	+1	7
15	Celta de Vigo III	7	−3	7
16	Somozas	7	−2	6
17	Viveiro	7	−4	5
18	Arenteiro	7	−5	4