Arenteiro v Atlético Arteixo prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Arenteiro 1–3 Atlético Arteixo ARENTEIRO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arenteiro win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.614

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arenteiro win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Arenteiro was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
1′KICK-OFF Arenteiro v Atlético Arteixo
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Arenteiro win 32%)
46′Arenteiro score on 46′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 70–21–9
46′We published Arenteiro at 37%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Arenteiro 1–0 Atlético Arteixo
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Arenteiro win: 37% at kick-off, 70% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Arenteiro win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 21%)
57′Atlético Arteixo find the net on 57′. 1–1. 1–1 · 27–46–27
57′Much as we predicted: Arenteiro was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 27% now. 1–1 · 27–46–27
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Arenteiro 1–1 Atlético Arteixo
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Arenteiro win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Arenteiro win 27%)
58′A goal for Atlético Arteixo on 58′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 6–21–73
58′We said Arenteiro at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 1–2 · 6–21–73
58′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 6–21–73
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Arenteiro 1–2 Atlético Arteixo
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Arenteiro win: 37% at kick-off, 6% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Atlético Arteixo win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 21%)
64′We said Arenteiro at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–19–76
77′Atlético Arteixo score on 77′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Arenteiro 1–3 Atlético Arteixo
78′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME Arenteiro 1–3 Atlético Arteixo
FTArenteiro 1–3 Atlético Arteixo · Arenteiro win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Arenteiro just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Arenteiro 37%, draw 27%, Atlético Arteixo 36%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Arenteiro v Atlético ArteixoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Arenteiro win37%

Draw27%

Atlético Arteixo win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arenteiro

Atlético Arteixo

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Atlético Arteixo	6	−2	6
17	Arenteiro	6	−3	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arenteiro winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Arenteiro a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arenteiro v Atlético Arteixo~~1.39 – 1.39

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~17 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arenteiro win	37%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Atlético Arteixo win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Arenteiro or draw	64%	–	–
Arenteiro clean sheet	26%	–	–
Atlético Arteixo clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.4 7.8 6.0 2.8 1 7.8 12.7 8.1 3.8 2 6.0 8.1 5.6 2.6 3 2.8 3.8 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arenteiro down, Atlético Arteixo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,490 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Arenteiro at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Atlético Arteixo away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Arenteiro, 1.39 for Atlético Arteixo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

ARENTEIRO

LLWLLD0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 3–3

ATLÉTICO ARTEIXO

DDWLLD0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 2–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	6	+5	13
2	Barco	6	+2	11
3	Antela	6	+1	11
4	Sarriana	6	+2	10
5	Portonovo SD	6	+2	10
6	Alondras	6	+1	10
7	Estradense	6	0	10
8	Lalin	6	0	10
9	Villalbés	6	+1	9
10	Silva	6	−1	8
11	Pontevedra II	6	+2	7
12	Celta de Vigo III	6	−2	7
13	Celtiga	6	−1	6
14	Somozas	6	−1	6
15	Coruña	6	−2	6
16	Atlético Arteixo	6	−2	6
17	Arenteiro	6	−3	4
18	Viveiro	6	−4	4