Antela v Barco prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Antela 1–1 Barco ANTELA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Antela win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.740

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Antela win43%

Draw30%

Barco win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Antela

Barco

8Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Barco	5	+2	10
5	Antela	5	+1	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · antela winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Antela a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Antela win	43%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Barco win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Antela or draw	73%	–	–
Antela clean sheet	40%	–	–
Barco clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 12.3 9.4 4.9 1 13.0 13.7 6.0 2 8.8 8.1 3.8 3 3.8 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Antela down, Barco across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,483 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Antela at home: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). Barco away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Antela, 0.94 for Barco. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

ANTELA

WLDWW1–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–2

BARCO

LWLWDW1–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boiro	5	+4	10
2	Portonovo SD	6	+2	10
3	Barco	5	+2	10
4	Lalin	5	+2	10
5	Antela	5	+1	10
6	Sarriana	5	+2	9
7	Villalbés	5	+2	9
8	Alondras	5	+1	9
9	Pontevedra II	6	+2	7
10	Celta de Vigo III	5	0	7
11	Estradense	5	−1	7
12	Somozas	6	−1	6
13	Atlético Arteixo	6	−2	6
14	Celtiga	5	−1	5
15	Silva	5	−3	5
16	Viveiro	5	−3	4
17	Arenteiro	5	−3	3
18	Coruña	5	−4	3