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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 › Alondras v Boiro

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Alondras v Boiro

Alondras
0–1Full time
Boiro

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02
Alondras 0–1 Boiro BOIRO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Boiro win37%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.595

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Boiro win at 37%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Boiro 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 34–29–37
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Alondras v Boiro
  4. 36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Boiro win 32%)
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Alondras 0–0 Boiro
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Alondras 0–0 Boiro
  7. 48′A goal for Boiro on 47′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–20–73
  8. 48′We said Boiro at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 0–1 · 7–20–73
  9. 48′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 7–20–73
  10. 48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Alondras 0–1 Boiro
  11. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Boiro win: 37% at kick-off, 73% now
  12. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Boiro win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 20%)
  13. 54′We said Boiro at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
  14. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Boiro win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
  15. 66′We said Boiro at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  16. 75′We said Boiro at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 1–13–85
  17. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Boiro win: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
  18. 81′We said Boiro at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
  19. 87′We said Boiro at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
  20. FTFULL TIME Alondras 0–1 Boiro
  21. FTAlondras 0–1 Boiro · Boiro win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Boiro just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Alondras 34%, draw 29%, Boiro 37%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Alondras v BoiroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Alondras win34%
Draw29%
Boiro win37%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:15

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alondras

Boiro

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Boiro6+513
7Alondras6+110

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · boiro winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
37% The market–
Us37%

We make Boiro a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Alondras v Boiro1.19 – 1.26
Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 10 v 137 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Alondras win34%––
Draw29%––
Boiro win37%––
Over 2.5 goals44%––
Both teams to score51%––
Over 1.5 goals71%––
Over 3.5 goals23%––
Alondras or draw63%––
Alondras clean sheet29%––
Boiro clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%
0123450 9.7 9.9 6.8 2.9 1 9.3 13.7 8.0 3.4 2 6.1 7.6 4.8 2.0 3 2.5 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Alondras down, Boiro across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting1.75
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsBOI 1–0 ALO · ALO 2–2 BOI · ALO 1–1 BOI · BOI 0–0 ALO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

ALONDRAS

LWWWLD2–6 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 4–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

BOIRO

WWWDLW3–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Boiro6+513
2Barco6+211
3Antela6+111
4Silva7011
5Sarriana6+210
6Portonovo SD6+210
7Alondras6+110
8Villalbés7+110
9Lalin6010
10Estradense7−110
11Atlético Arteixo709
12Celtiga709
13Pontevedra II6+27
14Celta de Vigo III7−37
15Somozas6−16
16Coruña6−26
17Viveiro7−45
18Arenteiro7−54

The competition's standings before kick-off.