Valladolid v Eldense prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:01

Valladolid 2–3 Eldense VALLADOLID WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Valladolid win~~49%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.875

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.909

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Valladolid win at 49%.
0′KICK-OFF Valladolid v Eldense
1′Much as we predicted: Valladolid was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–25
23′We published Valladolid at 49%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–7
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Valladolid 1–0 Eldense
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Valladolid win: 49% at kick-off, 76% now
24′Adrian Arnu scores for Valladolid on 24′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
26′Adrian Arnu scores for Valladolid on 23′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–6
31′SUBSTITUTION · 30' Valladolid · On: Victor Barbera · Off: Juan Miguel Latasa
36′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Fidel · Eldense
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Valladolid 1–1 Eldense
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Valladolid win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
42′41′: Jorge Rastrojo on the scoresheet for Eldense, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 39–39–22
45′We said Valladolid at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 1–2 · 12–26–62
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Valladolid 1–2 Eldense
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Valladolid win: 49% at kick-off, 12% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Eldense win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Valladolid win 12%)
45′HALF-TIME Valladolid 1–2 Eldense
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+5' Thiago Ezequiel Ojeda · Valladolid
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+5' Justin Smith · Eldense
45′SECOND HALF Valladolid 1–2 Eldense
46′Eldense ahead on 45′ through Aingeru Olabarrieta. 1–2. 1–2 · 12–26–63
47′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 11–26–63
53′We said Valladolid at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–25–66
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Valladolid win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Víctor Fernández · Valladolid
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Jorge Rastrojo · Eldense
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Eldense · On: Mariano Emilio Carmona Cerezo · Off: Jorge Rastrojo
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Eldense · On: Marcos Bustillo Aquesolo · Off: Justin Smith
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Valladolid · On: Iván Alejo · Off: Álvaro Pérez Campo
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Valladolid · On: Tay Abed · Off: Thiago Ezequiel Ojeda
68′We said Valladolid at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
71′🟥 RED CARD · 71' Valladolid
73′A red card for Valladolid on 72′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–2 · 3–18–79
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Eldense · On: Jorge Martin Camunas · Off: Javi Martínez
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Valladolid · On: Kaj de Rooij · Off: Julien Ponceau
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Valladolid · On: Robin van Duiven · Off: Adrian Arnu
80′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Juan Larios López · Eldense
82′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 11–81–7
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Eldense · On: Manuel Nieto · Off: Fidel
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Eldense · On: Iker Recio Ortega · Off: Juan Larios López
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Valladolid 2–2 Eldense
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Eldense win 7%)
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Iván Alejo · Valladolid
84′Victor Barbera scores for Valladolid on 83′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 9–85–6
94′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–2–98
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Valladolid 2–3 Eldense
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Eldense win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
95′Full time, 2–3. We called Valladolid at 49% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Valladolid 2–3 Eldense
FTValladolid 2–3 Eldense · Valladolid win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Valladolid are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Valladolid 49%, draw 27%, Eldense 25%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Valladolid v EldenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Valladolid win49%

Draw27%

Eldense win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueEstadio José Zorrilla

RefereeJose Antonio Sanchez Villalobos

Line-ups

Valladolid

4-1-3-2

Eldense

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Valladolid

Eldense

6Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

Last match: 10 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Valladolid	9	+2	12
15	Eldense	9	−1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Valladolid

4-1-3-2

1 A. Aceves

2 Trilli

15 P. Tomeo

4 D. Torres

27 I. Garriel

24 S. Juric

8 T. Ojeda

30 V. Fernandez

21 J. Ponceau

9 J. Latasa

19 A. Arnuncio

Coach · Fran Escriba

Substitutes

13 · D. Martin

18 · C. Clerc

5 · R. Martinez

3 · H. Al Amin

6 · M. Lachuer

16 · A. Balboa

11 · Y. Cabanzon

14 · I. Alejo

23 · T. Abed

20 · R. van Duiven

22 · K. de Rooij

17 · V. Barbera

Eldense

4-2-3-1

1 R. Vila

17 J. Clemente

5 A. G. Serradell

4 F. Smand

3 J. Larios

15 C. Guirao

14 J. Smith

10 Fidel

24 J. Martinez

33 A. Olabarrieta

7 J. Rastrojo

Coach · Javier Calleja

Substitutes

13 · Juanpa

23 · J. Martin

2 · I. Recio

22 · J. Yanda

34 · J. Olaizola

8 · M. Bustillo

11 · M. Nieto

9 · M. Carmona

29 · D. Rodrigues

19 · A. Ibarrondo

Our number · valladolid winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:46 · locked at kick-off

49% The market49%

Us49%

~~Market~~49%

We make Valladolid a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Valladolid v Eldense~~1.50 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 11~~11 v 15

~~The market · Valladolid win~~49% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Valladolid win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 49% now. The market has gone from 47% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Valladolid win	49%	49%	0
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Eldense win	25%	23%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	45%	48%	−3
Both teams to score	48%	51%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	71%	72%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	28%	−4
Valladolid or draw	75%	77%	−2
Valladolid clean sheet	38%	–	–
Eldense clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 9.0 8.0 4.1 1 12.3 12.4 6.0 2 9.3 9.0 4.4 3 4.7 4.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Valladolid down, Eldense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,444 Segunda División matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Valladolid at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Eldense away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Valladolid, 0.98 for Eldense. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 17:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VAL 1–0 ELD · ELD 0–1 VAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 5 Sept

VALLADOLID

WLDWDW1–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 5–0

ELDENSE

DWLLWW0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Almeria	10	+13	24
2	Castellón	10	+14	23
3	Eibar	10	+9	22
4	Sporting Gijon	10	+2	19
5	Mallorca	10	+7	18
6	Sabadell	9	+3	16
7	Girona	9	+6	15
8	Burgos	9	+2	14
9	Oviedo	9	+2	14
10	Granada CF	9	+1	14
11	Valladolid	9	+2	12
12	Tenerife	9	−2	12
13	Cordoba	10	−5	12
14	Celta de Vigo II	9	−1	11
15	Eldense	9	−1	11
16	Las Palmas	10	−6	11
17	Leganes	10	−9	11
18	FC Andorra	9	−2	10
19	Real Sociedad II	10	−7	8
20	Cadiz	9	0	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	−12	5
22	Albacete	10	−16	1