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Valladolid v Albacete

Valladolid

5–0Full time

Albacete

Segunda División · MON 12 OCT · Estadio José Zorrilla

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 15:31

Valladolid 5–0 Albacete VALLADOLID WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Valladolid win~~43%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.479

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.408

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 54 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Valladolid win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Valladolid 43% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
1′KICK-OFF Valladolid v Albacete
13′SUBSTITUTION · 14' Albacete · On: Agustin Albarracin Basil · Off: Fran Gámez Corrected
14′14′ and it is 0–0: Julien Ponceau on the scoresheet for Valladolid. 0–0 · 42–29–29
20′We said Valladolid at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Valladolid 1–0 Albacete · Julien Ponceau
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Valladolid 1–0 Albacete · David Torres
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
23′Valladolid ahead on 22′ through David Torres. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Valladolid 2–0 Albacete · David Torres
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 91% now
24′We said Valladolid at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 91% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 91% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 91% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 91% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 91% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 92% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 92% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 92% now
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Antonio Pacheco Ruiz · Albacete
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 92% now
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Valladolid 2–0 Albacete · Adrian Arnu
32′Adrian Arnu scores for Valladolid on 31′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 98–1–0
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Valladolid 3–0 Albacete · Adrian Arnu
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 98% now
33′We said Valladolid at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–0 · 98–1–0
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 98% now
34′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 98–1–0
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 98% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 98% now
36′37′ and it is 3–0: Juan Miguel Latasa on the scoresheet for Valladolid. 3–0 · 99–1–0
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 98% now
36′⚽ GOAL · 37' Valladolid 3–0 Albacete · Juan Miguel Latasa
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 99% now
37′We said Valladolid at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Valladolid 4–0 Albacete · Juan Miguel Latasa
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 100% now
38′36′ and it is 4–0: Juan Miguel Latasa on the scoresheet for Valladolid. 4–0 · 100–0–0
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Valladolid 4–0 Albacete · Juan Miguel Latasa
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 100% now
39′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 100% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 100% now
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Agustin Albarracin Basil · Albacete
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 100% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Valladolid win: 43% at kick-off, 100% now
42′🟨 YELLOW · 43' José Corpas · Albacete
45′SECOND HALF Valladolid 4–0 Albacete
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Valladolid 4–0 Albacete · Adrian Arnu
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Valladolid 5–0 Albacete · Adrian Arnu
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Albacete · On: Álex Rubio Roldán · Off: Roberto Gonzalez Bayon Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Albacete · On: Sergio Ortuno Diaz · Off: Víctor San Bartolomé Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Valladolid · On: Mathis Lachuer · Off: Thiago Ezequiel Ojeda Corrected
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Sergio Ortuno Diaz · Albacete
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Valladolid · On: Victor Barbera · Off: Adrian Arnu Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Valladolid · On: Kaj de Rooij · Off: Julien Ponceau Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Valladolid · On: Homam Al-Amin · Off: Iván Garriel Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Valladolid · On: Yeray Cabanzón · Off: Víctor Fernández Corrected
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Iván Alejo · Valladolid
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Albacete · On: Javi Villar · Off: Victor Valverde da Silva Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Albacete · On: Dani Bernabéu · Off: Antonio Pacheco Ruiz Corrected
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Kaj de Rooij · Valladolid
FTFULL TIME Valladolid 5–0 Albacete
FTValladolid 5–0 Albacete · Valladolid win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 13:01 · locked at kick-off

Valladolid win43%

Draw27%

Albacete win29%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 13:00

VenueEstadio José Zorrilla

RefereeMiranda Bolano, Daniel

Line-ups

Valladolid

4-1-3-2

Albacete

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Valladolid

Albacete

8Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Valladolid	8	−3	9
22	Albacete	8	−10	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Valladolid

4-1-3-2

1 A. Aceves

14 I. Alejo

15 P. Tomeo

4 D. Torres

27 I. Garriel

24 S. Juric

8 T. Ojeda

30 V. Fernandez

21 J. Ponceau

9 J. Latasa

19 A. Arnuncio

Coach · Fran Escriba

Substitutes

13 · D. Martin

18 · C. Clerc

5 · R. Martinez

3 · H. Al Amin

2 · Trilli

6 · M. Lachuer

16 · A. Balboa

11 · Y. Cabanzon

23 · T. Abed

20 · R. van Duiven

22 · K. de Rooij

17 · V. Barbera

Albacete

4-4-2

13 D. Marino

15 F. Gamez

24 J. Vallejo

22 L. Lopez

21 C. Neva

17 J. Corpas

14 V. San Bartolome

6 A. Pacheco

11 V. Valverde

10 R. Gonzalez

9 M. Soberon

Coach · Joseba Etxeberria

Substitutes

1 · C. Marin

27 · D. Bernabeu

40 · Jota Domingo

28 · A. Velilla

4 · Agus Medina

44 · Antonio David

8 · J. Villar

18 · S. Ortuno

32 · A. Albarracin

12 · H. Marin

19 · A. Rubio

Our number · valladolid winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 13:01 · locked at kick-off

43% The market48%

Us43%

~~Market~~48%

We make Valladolid a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · valladolid win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Valladolid win	43%	48%	−4
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Albacete win	29%	24%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	46%	50%	−5
Both teams to score	50%	55%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	71%	74%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	29%	−5
Valladolid or draw	71%	76%	−6
Valladolid clean sheet	34%	–	–
Albacete clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.7 8.7 5.0 1 11.1 12.8 6.9 2.6 2 8.0 8.7 4.8 3 3.8 4.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Valladolid down, Albacete across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,435 Segunda División matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.5% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.25 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Valladolid at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Albacete away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Valladolid, 1.10 for Albacete. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 12:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VAL 0–1 ALB · ALB 2–0 VAL · VAL 0–0 ALB · ALB 2–0 VAL

Form · last six in Segunda División

VALLADOLID

DWLDWD1–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–2

ALBACETE

LLDLLL0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eibar	8	+11	21
2	Almeria	9	+11	21
3	Castellón	9	+11	20
4	Mallorca	9	+7	17
5	Sabadell	9	+3	16
6	Sporting Gijon	9	+1	16
7	Girona	8	+6	14
8	Burgos	8	+3	14
9	Granada CF	8	0	11
10	Oviedo	8	0	11
11	Celta de Vigo II	9	−1	11
12	Eldense	9	−1	11
13	Tenerife	8	−2	11
14	Las Palmas	9	−3	11
15	Leganes	9	−8	11
16	FC Andorra	9	−2	10
17	Valladolid	8	−3	9
18	Cordoba	9	−6	9
19	Real Sociedad II	9	−5	8
20	Cadiz	9	0	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	−12	5
22	Albacete	8	−10	1