Tenerife v Girona prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 22:30

Tenerife 1–1 Girona GIRONA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Girona win~~38%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.751

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.741

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 41 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Girona win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Girona was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 33–29–38
3′We published Girona at 38%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 13–20–67
3′Yaser Asprilla scores for Girona on 4′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–20–67
5′Yaser Asprilla scores for Girona on 4′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–20–67
7′We published Girona at 38%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 12–20–67
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Girona win: 38% at kick-off, 67% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Girona win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Girona win: 38% at kick-off, 67% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Girona win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Girona win: 38% at kick-off, 67% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Girona win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Girona win: 38% at kick-off, 67% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Girona win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
18′We published Girona at 38%. Our model now makes it 69%. 0–1 · 11–21–69
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Girona win: 38% at kick-off, 67% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Girona win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' David Rodríguez Ramos · Tenerife
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Girona win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
22′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Izan González · Girona
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Girona win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Girona win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Fabricio Assis de Souza Barbosa · Tenerife
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Tenerife 1–1 Girona · Yaser Asprilla
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Girona win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Girona win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Tenerife 1–1 Girona · Enric Gallego
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Girona win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
45′SECOND HALF Tenerife 1–1 Girona
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Girona · On: Vladyslav Krapyvtsov · Off: Paulo Gazzaniga
47′HALF-TIME Tenerife 1–1 Girona
52′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Tenerife · On: Jesus Alvarez · Off: Fabricio Assis de Souza Barbosa
52′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Vladyslav Vanat · Girona
54′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Holmes Júnior Zamorano Muñoz · Girona
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Girona · On: Bryan Gil · Off: Abel Ruíz
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Girona · On: Donny van de Beek · Off: Yaser Asprilla
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Tenerife · On: Gerard Valentín · Off: Dani Fernández
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Tenerife 1–2 Girona · Enric Gallego
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Girona · On: Unai Hernández · Off: Carles Pérez
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Tenerife · On: Noel López · Off: Mauro Pitton Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Tenerife · On: A. Krdžalić · Off: Christian Pierre Louis Gomis Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Tenerife · On: Grant Leon Ranos · Off: Enric Gallego Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Girona · On: Oleksandr Pyshchur · Off: Izan González
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Girona · On: Oleksandr Pyshchur · Off: Izan González
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Enric Gallego · Tenerife
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Donny van de Beek · Girona
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Tenerife 2–1 Girona · Enric Gallego
FTFULL TIME Tenerife 1–1 Girona
FTTenerife 1–1 Girona · Girona win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 19:46 · locked at kick-off

Tenerife win33%

Draw29%

Girona win38%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 20:00

VenueHeliodoro Rodríguez López

RefereeDaniel Palencia Caballero

Line-ups

Tenerife

4-4-2

Girona

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Tenerife

Girona

7Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Girona	8	+6	14
13	Tenerife	8	−2	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tenerife

4-4-2

1 D. Martin

19 C. Alvarez

12 A. Landazuri

4 J. Leon

2 D. Rodriguez

29 D. Fernandez

15 Fabricio

20 M. Pitton

10 N. Gil

18 E. Gallego

17 C. Gomis

Coach · Alvaro Cervera

Substitutes

40 · G. De Vuyst

3 · R. Jureskin

21 · M. Mateu

5 · J. Moreno

27 · N. Viereck

16 · J. Alvarez

23 · A. Krdzalic

14 · G. Valentin

7 · M. Pecar

9 · J. de Miguel

22 · G. Ranos

11 · N. Lopez

Girona

4-4-2

13 P. Gazzaniga

4 J. Bonar

38 H. Zamorano

16 A. Frances

11 A. Moreno

22 Y. Asprilla

8 F. Beltran

24 I. Gonzalez

23 C. Perez

9 A. Ruiz

19 V. Vanat

Coach · Quique Alvarez

Substitutes

25 · V. Krapyvtsov

1 · S. Puig

5 · D. Lopez

3 · M. Morey

2 · A. Mumin

6 · D. van de Beek

29 · L. Kourouma

14 · I. Morante

30 · U. Hernandez

10 · Portu

17 · B. Gil

15 · O. Pyshchur

Our number · girona winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 19:46 · locked at kick-off

38% The market39%

Us38%

~~Market~~39%

We make Girona a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · girona win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tenerife win	33%	31%	+2
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Girona win	38%	39%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	39%	45%	−6
Both teams to score	45%	52%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	66%	70%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	19%	25%	−6
Tenerife or draw	62%	61%	+1
Tenerife clean sheet	31%	–	–
Girona clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.3 12.1 7.3 2.9 1 11.0 13.3 7.6 3.0 2 6.1 6.9 4.1 3 2.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tenerife down, Girona across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,435 Segunda División matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.5% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tenerife at home: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Girona away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Tenerife, 1.18 for Girona. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TEN 1–3 GIR · GIR 0–0 TEN · GIR 0–1 TEN · TEN 2–1 GIR

Form · last six in Segunda División

TENERIFE

LDWLDL0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 2–3

GIRONA

WWLWWD5–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eibar	8	+11	21
2	Almeria	9	+11	21
3	Castellón	9	+11	20
4	Mallorca	9	+7	17
5	Sabadell	9	+3	16
6	Sporting Gijon	9	+1	16
7	Girona	8	+6	14
8	Burgos	8	+3	14
9	Granada CF	8	0	11
10	Oviedo	8	0	11
11	Celta de Vigo II	9	−1	11
12	Eldense	9	−1	11
13	Tenerife	8	−2	11
14	Las Palmas	9	−3	11
15	Leganes	9	−8	11
16	FC Andorra	9	−2	10
17	Valladolid	8	−3	9
18	Cordoba	9	−6	9
19	Real Sociedad II	9	−5	8
20	Cadiz	9	0	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	−12	5
22	Albacete	8	−10	1