Sporting Gijon v Albacete prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:08

Sporting Gijon 2–1 Albacete SPORTING GIJON WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sporting Gijon win~~51%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.358

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.422

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting Gijon win at 51%.
2′Much as we predicted: Sporting Gijon was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–24
2′KICK-OFF Sporting Gijon v Albacete
17′We published Sporting Gijon at 51%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–8
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Sporting Gijon 1–0 Albacete
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Sporting Gijon win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
18′A goal for Sporting Gijon on 17′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–7
45′SECOND HALF Sporting Gijon 1–0 Albacete
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Albacete · On: Higinio Marín · Off: Álex Rubio Roldán
46′HALF-TIME Sporting Gijon 1–0 Albacete
52′We published Sporting Gijon at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Sporting Gijon win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Albacete · On: Agustin Medina Delgado · Off: Víctor San Bartolomé
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Emanuel Gularte · Sporting Gijon
69′We published Sporting Gijon at 51%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sporting Gijon · On: Hugo Guillamón · Off: Manuel Rodríguez Paz
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sporting Gijon · On: Pablo García · Off: Enol Prendes Ortiz
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Albacete · On: Mario Soberon Gutierrez · Off: Dani Bernabéu
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sporting Gijon · On: Juan Otero · Off: Alejo Sarco
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sporting Gijon · On: Bruno Rubio Argüelles · Off: Gaspar Campos
80′We published Sporting Gijon at 51%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–9–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Albacete · On: Javi Villar · Off: Antonio Pacheco Ruiz
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Sporting Gijon win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Hugo Guillamón · Sporting Gijon
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Pablo García · Sporting Gijon
86′We said Sporting Gijon at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–86–5
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Sporting Gijon 1–1 Albacete
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Sporting Gijon win: 51% at kick-off, 8% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Sporting Gijon win 8%)
87′86′: Jesús Vallejo on the scoresheet for Albacete, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 8–88–5
90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Nicolás Ricardo Larcamón · Sporting Gijon
91′We said Sporting Gijon at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
94′We published Sporting Gijon at 51%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–1 · 99–1–0
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Sporting Gijon 2–1 Albacete
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Sporting Gijon win: 51% at kick-off, 99% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Sporting Gijon win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
95′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 99–1–0
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Diego Mariño · Albacete
96′Sporting Gijon ahead on 90′ through César Gelabert. 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
97′Full time, 2–1. We called Sporting Gijon at 51% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Sporting Gijon 2–1 Albacete
FTSporting Gijon 2–1 Albacete · Sporting Gijon win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting Gijon are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting Gijon 51%, draw 25%, Albacete 24%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Sporting Gijon v AlbaceteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sporting Gijon win51%

Draw25%

Albacete win24%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueEl Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini

RefereeMorilla Turrion, Alejandro

Line-ups

Sporting Gijon

4-4-2

Albacete

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting Gijon

Albacete

6Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

Last match: 12 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Sporting Gijon	9	+1	16
22	Albacete	9	−15	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sporting Gijon

4-4-2

1 R. Yanez

2 G. Rosas

4 E. Gularte

23 J. Saenz

44 A. Cuenca

10 C. Gelabert Pina

8 M. Rodriguez

14 A. Corredera

7 G. Campos

16 A. Sarco

27 E. Prendes

Coach · Nicolas Larcamon

Substitutes

13 · E. Arana

15 · P. Vazquez

3 · P. Garcia

26 · I. Martinez

5 · D. Sanchez

22 · H. Guillamon

21 · M. Loum

6 · N. Martin

34 · D. Matabuena

36 · B. Rubio

35 · C. Ferreres

19 · J. Otero

Albacete

3-5-2

13 D. Marino

24 J. Vallejo

22 L. Lopez

21 C. Neva

17 J. Corpas

14 V. San Bartolome

6 A. Pacheco

18 S. Ortuno

27 D. Bernabeu

19 A. Rubio

11 V. Valverde

Coach · Joseba Etxeberria

Substitutes

1 · C. Marin

30 · M. Ramos

2 · Lorenzo

40 · Jota Domingo

28 · A. Velilla

4 · Agus Medina

44 · Antonio David

8 · J. Villar

32 · A. Albarracin

10 · R. Gonzalez

12 · H. Marin

9 · M. Soberon

Our number · sporting gijon winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:46 · locked at kick-off

51% The market47%

Us51%

~~Market~~47%

We make Sporting Gijon a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sporting Gijon v Albacete~~1.66 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 16 v 1~~6 v 22

~~The market · Sporting Gijon win~~47% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sporting Gijon win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Gijon win	51%	47%	+4
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Albacete win	24%	26%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	50%	+1
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	74%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	29%	0
Sporting Gijon or draw	76%	74%	+2
Sporting Gijon clean sheet	35%	–	–
Albacete clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.1 6.8 3.7 1 10.8 11.7 6.0 2.1 2 9.1 9.4 5.0 3 5.0 5.2 2.8 4 2.1 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Gijon down, Albacete across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,440 Segunda División matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.88 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting Gijon at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Albacete away: 0.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Sporting Gijon, 1.05 for Albacete. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.88

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~7 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ALB 1–1 SPO · SPO 3–4 ALB · SPO 0–2 ALB · ALB 3–3 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 5 Sept

SPORTING GIJON

LLWLWW0–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 1–0

ALBACETE

LDLLLL0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Almeria	10	+13	24
2	Eibar	9	+9	21
3	Castellón	9	+11	20
4	Mallorca	9	+7	17
5	Sabadell	9	+3	16
6	Sporting Gijon	9	+1	16
7	Girona	9	+6	15
8	Burgos	9	+2	14
9	Oviedo	9	+2	14
10	Granada CF	9	+1	14
11	Valladolid	9	+2	12
12	Tenerife	9	−2	12
13	Cordoba	10	−5	12
14	Celta de Vigo II	9	−1	11
15	Eldense	9	−1	11
16	Las Palmas	9	−3	11
17	Leganes	10	−9	11
18	FC Andorra	9	−2	10
19	Real Sociedad II	10	−7	8
20	Cadiz	9	0	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	−12	5
22	Albacete	9	−15	1