Sabadell v Tenerife prediction · Segunda División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SabadellDrawTenerife

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sabadell 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sabadell are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sabadell 49%, draw 29%, Tenerife 22%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Sabadell v TenerifeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sabadell win49%

Draw29%

Tenerife win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueNova Creu Alta

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sabadell

Tenerife

7Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

Last match: 19 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Sabadell	10	+2	16
12	Tenerife	10	−2	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sabadell winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

49% The market49%

Us49%

~~Market~~49%

We make Sabadell a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sabadell v Tenerife~~1.33 – 0.80

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 13~~10 v 12

~~The market · Sabadell win~~49% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sabadell win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sabadell win	49%	49%	0
Draw	29%	29%	0
Tenerife win	22%	22%	0
Over 2.5 goals	36%	38%	−2
Both teams to score	41%	43%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	63%	63%	0
Over 3.5 goals	17%	19%	−2
Sabadell or draw	78%	78%	0
Sabadell clean sheet	45%	–	–
Tenerife clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.4%

0123450 12.4 9.2 3.8 1 15.4 12.8 5.0 2 10.4 8.3 3.3 3 4.7 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sabadell down, Tenerife across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,451 Segunda División matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.5% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Sabadell at home: 1.75 scored, 0.75 conceded a game (last 4). Tenerife away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Sabadell, 0.80 for Tenerife. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 13 Sept

SABADELL

LWDDWL0–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

TENERIFE

WLDLDD2–0 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Almeria	10	+13	24
2	Castellón	10	+14	23
3	Eibar	10	+9	22
4	Granada CF	11	+4	20
5	Sporting Gijon	10	+2	19
6	Girona	10	+8	18
7	Mallorca	10	+7	18
8	Burgos	10	+3	17
9	Oviedo	10	+3	17
10	Sabadell	10	+2	16
11	Eldense	10	0	14
12	Tenerife	10	−2	13
13	Valladolid	11	0	12
14	Celta de Vigo II	10	−1	12
15	Cordoba	10	−5	12
16	Las Palmas	10	−6	11
17	Leganes	10	−9	11
18	FC Andorra	10	−4	10
19	Real Sociedad II	10	−7	8
20	Cadiz	10	−2	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	−13	5
22	Albacete	10	−16	1