Real Sociedad II v Almeria prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Real Sociedad II 2–4 Almeria ALMERIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Almeria win~~45%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.455

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.413

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Almeria win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF Real Sociedad II v Almeria
2′Little has changed for our model: Almeria 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 31–24–45
23′We said Almeria at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 12–18–70
23′Almeria find the net on 23′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–18–70
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Real Sociedad II 0–1 Almeria
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Almeria win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 11–19–70
31′SUBSTITUTION · 30' Almeria · On: Jon Morcillo · Off: Daijiro Chirino
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Dani Diaz · Real Sociedad II
38′We said Almeria at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Real Sociedad II 0–2 Almeria
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Almeria win: 45% at kick-off, 91% now
39′Miguel De La Fuente scores for Almeria on 38′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
39′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Jorge Pulido · Almeria
47′SECOND HALF Real Sociedad II 0–2 Almeria
48′HALF-TIME Real Sociedad II 0–2 Almeria
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Javier Soroeta · Real Sociedad II
54′We said Almeria at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Real Sociedad II 0–3 Almeria
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Almeria win: 45% at kick-off, 99% now
54′PENALTY · 51' Almeria
55′54′: Sergio Arribas Calvo on the scoresheet for Almeria, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
57′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–5–94
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Real Sociedad II 1–3 Almeria
59′Real Sociedad II pull one back on 58′ through Lander Astiazarán. 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–95
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Real Sociedad II · On: Gorka Carrera Zarranz · Off: Javier Soroeta
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Real Sociedad II · On: Arkaitz Mariezkurrena · Off: Gorka Gorosabel
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Real Sociedad II · On: Jon Eceizabarrena · Off: Ibai Aguirre
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Almeria · On: Nicolás Melamed Ribaudo · Off: Brian Cipenga
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Almeria · On: Álex Muñoz · Off: Leonardo Lelo
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Real Sociedad II · On: Andrews Adjabeng · Off: Dani Diaz
84′We said Almeria at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
84′14 shots for Real Sociedad II, 7 the other way, and they still trail 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Almeria · On: Léo Baptistão · Off: Miguel De La Fuente
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Almeria · On: Quim junyent · Off: Sergio Arribas Calvo
89′16 shots for Real Sociedad II, 7 the other way, and they still trail 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Real Sociedad II · On: Sydney Osazuwa · Off: Iker Calderon
94′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–2–98
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Real Sociedad II 2–3 Almeria
95′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–0–100
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Real Sociedad II 2–4 Almeria
96′Arkaitz Mariezkurrena scores for Real Sociedad II on 90′. 2–4 · 0–0–100
96′90′: Inaki Ruperez puts it into the Real Sociedad II net, and it is 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
98′2–4 at the end. Our 45% on Almeria comes in. 2–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Real Sociedad II 2–4 Almeria
FTReal Sociedad II 2–4 Almeria · Almeria win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Almeria are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Sociedad II 31%, draw 23%, Almeria 45%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Real Sociedad II v AlmeriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Real Sociedad II win31%

Draw23%

Almeria win45%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueEstadio Ciudad Deportiva Zubieta

RefereeOjaos Valera, Alejandro

Line-ups

Real Sociedad II

4-3-3

Almeria

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Sociedad II

Almeria

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

Last match: 11 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Real Sociedad II

4-3-3

1 A. Fraga

22 I. Ruperez

15 I. Calderon

5 K. Kita

3 J. Balda

16 G. Gorosabel

14 T. Carbonell

8 I. Aguirre

7 D. Diaz

19 J. Soroeta

17 L. Astiazaran

Coach · Ion Ansotegi

Substitutes

32 · L. Olasagasti

23 · U. Agote

2 · J. Garro

24 · U. Ayo

21 · J. Eceizabarrena

12 · J. Oleaga

10 · A. Mariezkurrena

18 · G. Carrera

34 · A. Adjabeng

20 · S. Osazuwa

Almeria

4-2-3-1

1 A. Fernandez

2 M. Luna

5 J. Pulido

18 F. Bonini

15 L. Lelo

29 S. Dzodic

14 Javier Munoz

22 D. Chirino

11 S. Arribas

17 B. Cipenga

24 M. de la Fuente

Coach · Javier Garcia Pimienta Francisco

Substitutes

31 · A. Yaakobishvili

13 · F. Martinez

3 · A. Munoz

21 · Chumi

33 · Q. Junyent

10 · N. Melamed

26 · K. Kone

23 · A. Embarba

20 · A. Sola

9 · Thalys

12 · Leo Baptistao

7 · J. Morcillo

Our number · almeria winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market48%

Us45%

~~Market~~48%

We make Almeria a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Sociedad II v Almeria~~1.43 – 1.76

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 8 v 21~~19 v 1

~~The market · Almeria win~~48% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Almeria win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Sociedad II win	31%	26%	+5
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Almeria win	45%	48%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	62%	56%	+6
Both teams to score	63%	59%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	83%	78%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	40%	35%	+5
Real Sociedad II or draw	55%	52%	+3
Real Sociedad II clean sheet	18%	–	–
Almeria clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.5 7.1 6.3 3.7 1 5.7 10.5 8.9 5.2 2.4 2 4.3 7.3 6.4 3.7 3 2.0 3.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Sociedad II down, Almeria across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,440 Segunda División matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Sociedad II at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Almeria away: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Real Sociedad II, 1.76 for Almeria. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ALM 5–1 REA · REA 2–2 ALM · REA 0–2 ALM · ALM 3–1 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 5 Sept

REAL SOCIEDAD II

DWLLLL1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 1–4

ALMERIA

WWWWWW3–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Almeria	9	+11	21
2	Eibar	9	+9	21
3	Castellón	9	+11	20
4	Mallorca	9	+7	17
5	Sabadell	9	+3	16
6	Sporting Gijon	9	+1	16
7	Girona	9	+6	15
8	Burgos	9	+2	14
9	Oviedo	9	+2	14
10	Granada CF	9	+1	14
11	Valladolid	9	+2	12
12	Tenerife	9	−2	12
13	Cordoba	10	−5	12
14	Celta de Vigo II	9	−1	11
15	Eldense	9	−1	11
16	Las Palmas	9	−3	11
17	Leganes	10	−9	11
18	FC Andorra	9	−2	10
19	Real Sociedad II	9	−5	8
20	Cadiz	9	0	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	−12	5
22	Albacete	9	−15	1