Oviedo v Eibar prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 20:06

Oviedo 3–1 Eibar OVIEDO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Oviedo win~~39%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.558

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.551

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Oviedo win at 39%.
0′Little has changed for our model: Oviedo 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–30–31
4′Oviedo ahead on 3′ through Mikel Goti Lopez. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
5′We said Oviedo at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–20–11
9′We said Oviedo at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
29′Oviedo ahead on 3′ through Mikel Goti Lopez. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–20–8
30′We said Oviedo at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–20–8
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 72–20–8
35′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 73–20–7
43′We said Oviedo at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
45′We said Oviedo at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
45′Carlos Dominguez scores for Oviedo on 45′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–5–1
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Oviedo 2–0 Eibar · Víctor García Mingo
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Oviedo win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Oviedo win: 39% at kick-off, 95% now
45′HALF-TIME Oviedo 2–0 Eibar
46′SECOND HALF Oviedo 2–0 Eibar
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Eibar · On: Peru Nolaskoain · Off: Unai Elgezabal Udondo
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Oviedo win: 39% at kick-off, 95% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Oviedo win: 39% at kick-off, 95% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Oviedo win: 39% at kick-off, 95% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Oviedo win: 39% at kick-off, 95% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Oviedo win: 39% at kick-off, 95% now
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Carlos Dominguez · Oviedo
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Oviedo win: 39% at kick-off, 95% now
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Eibar · On: Iván Gil · Off: Jon Magunazelaia
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Eibar · On: Pejiño · Off: jon guruzeta
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Oviedo · On: José Luis Morales · Off: Víctor García Mingo
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Oviedo · On: Nacho Vidal · Off: David Jimenez
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Oviedo · On: Daniel Villahermosa · Off: Youness Lachhab Didi
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Oviedo · On: Pablo Saenz · Off: Enzo Pérez Miranda
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Eibar · On: Javier Martón Ansó · Off: Malcom Ares
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Oviedo 2–1 Eibar · Iván Gil
78′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Dani Calvo · Oviedo
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Eibar · On: Lucas Nuñez Ramirez · Off: Ander Madariaga Susaeta
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Oviedo · On: David Costas · Off: Mikel Goti Lopez
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Oviedo 3–1 Eibar · Iván Gil
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Oviedo 3–1 Eibar · Carlos Dominguez
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Daniel Villahermosa · Oviedo
FTFULL TIME Oviedo 3–1 Eibar
FTOviedo 3–1 Eibar · Oviedo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

Oviedo win39%

Draw30%

Eibar win31%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 17:30

VenueNuevo Carlos Tartiere

RefereeMorales Moreno Pablo

Line-ups

Oviedo

4-3-2-1

Eibar

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Oviedo

Eibar

10Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eibar	8	+11	21
10	Oviedo	8	0	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Oviedo

4-3-2-1

13 A. Escandell

21 D. Jimenez

12 D. Calvo

23 C. Dominguez

15 S. Rodriguez

16 A. Aldasoro

5 Y. Lachhab

32 E. Perez

8 M. Goti Lopez

10 A. Reina

18 V. Mingo

Coach · Julian Calero

Substitutes

27 · S. Franganillo

1 · M. Narvaez

4 · D. Costas

22 · N. Vidal

30 · Marco Esteban

11 · J. Gonzalez

2 · A. Ahmed

6 · D. Villahermosa

28 · D. Menendez

20 · P. Saenz

25 · J. Morales

Eibar

4-2-3-1

13 J. Magunagoitia

22 A. Rodriguez

4 U. Elgezabal

23 A. Arbilla

24 J. Bernat

30 A. Garrido

8 A. Madariaga

7 A. Ares

11 J. Magunazelaia Argoitia

10 J. Guruzeta

9 J. Bautista

Coach · Jokin Aranbarri

Substitutes

1 · L. Lopez

2 · S. Cubero

15 · J. Amador

3 · I. Garcia de Albeniz

18 · M. Arana

5 · P. Nolaskoain

21 · I. Gil

28 · L. Nunez

14 · L. Olaetxea

17 · Pejino

20 · Javier Marton

19 · E. Perez

Our number · oviedo winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

39% The market39%

Us39%

~~Market~~39%

We make Oviedo a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · oviedo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oviedo win	39%	39%	0
Draw	30%	30%	0
Eibar win	31%	30%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	36%	43%	−7
Both teams to score	43%	50%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	63%	68%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	17%	23%	−6
Oviedo or draw	69%	70%	−1
Oviedo clean sheet	38%	–	–
Eibar clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 12.5 11.3 5.8 1 13.2 13.5 6.5 2.2 2 7.8 7.5 3.7 3 3.0 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oviedo down, Eibar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,435 Segunda División matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.5% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.10 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oviedo at home: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Eibar away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Oviedo, 0.98 for Eibar. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 17:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~EIB 1–1 OVI · OVI 1–0 EIB · EIB 0–2 OVI · OVI 0–0 EIB

Form · last six in Segunda División

OVIEDO

WDWLWL1–0 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–4

EIBAR

WWWWWW1–0 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eibar	8	+11	21
2	Almeria	9	+11	21
3	Castellón	9	+11	20
4	Mallorca	9	+7	17
5	Sabadell	9	+3	16
6	Sporting Gijon	9	+1	16
7	Girona	8	+6	14
8	Burgos	8	+3	14
9	Granada CF	8	0	11
10	Oviedo	8	0	11
11	Celta de Vigo II	9	−1	11
12	Eldense	9	−1	11
13	Tenerife	8	−2	11
14	Las Palmas	9	−3	11
15	Leganes	9	−8	11
16	FC Andorra	9	−2	10
17	Valladolid	8	−3	9
18	Cordoba	9	−6	9
19	Real Sociedad II	9	−5	8
20	Cadiz	9	0	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	−12	5
22	Albacete	8	−10	1