Mallorca v Las Palmas prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Mallorca 3–1 Las Palmas MALLORCA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mallorca win~~40%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.543

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.220

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mallorca win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mallorca was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
26′27′ and it is 1–0: Pablo Torre on the scoresheet for Mallorca. 1–0 · 72–20–8
30′27′ and it is 1–0: Pablo Torre on the scoresheet for Mallorca. 1–0 · 73–20–7
33′We published Mallorca at 40%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–20–7
34′We published Mallorca at 40%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–20–7
37′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 74–20–6
38′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 74–20–6
41′We published Mallorca at 40%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
44′We published Mallorca at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–5
45′We published Mallorca at 40%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–19–5
54′Mallorca ahead on 53′ through Alex Sala. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–0
56′We published Mallorca at 40%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–0
63′Mallorca ahead on 53′ through Alex Sala. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
66′We published Mallorca at 40%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
74′Iván Jaime scores for Las Palmas on 73′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 87–12–1
77′We published Mallorca at 40%. Our model now makes it 89%. 2–1 · 89–10–1
80′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 91–9–0
84′82′ and it is 3–1: Adrian Fuentes on the scoresheet for Mallorca. 3–1 · 100–0–0
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Mallorca win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Mallorca win: 40% at kick-off, 100% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Mallorca win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Las Palmas · On: Mateo Acimovic · Off: Adrián Rodríguez del Rosario Corrected
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Juanma Herzog · Las Palmas
87′We published Mallorca at 40%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Mallorca win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Mallorca win: 40% at kick-off, 100% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Mallorca win: 40% at kick-off, 100% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Mallorca win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Mallorca win: 40% at kick-off, 100% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Mallorca win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
90′4 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Mallorca win: 40% at kick-off, 100% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Mallorca win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Mallorca win: 40% at kick-off, 100% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Mallorca win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Mallorca win: 40% at kick-off, 100% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Mallorca win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Mallorca win: 40% at kick-off, 100% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Mallorca win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Mallorca win: 40% at kick-off, 100% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Mallorca win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Mallorca 3–1 Las Palmas
FTMallorca 3–1 Las Palmas · Mallorca win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Mallorca win40%

Draw30%

Las Palmas win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:30

VenueEstadi Mallorca Son Moix

RefereeGorka Etayo Herrera

Line-ups

Mallorca

4-1-3-2

Las Palmas

4-5-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Mallorca

Las Palmas

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Mallorca	8	+5	14
12	Las Palmas	8	−1	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Mallorca

4-1-3-2

1 A. Tenas

15 J. Donald

24 M. Valjent

21 A. Raillo

5 A. Moreno

6 A. Sanchez

19 J. Cerda

7 A. Sala

33 A. Liso

18 A. Fuentes

20 P. Torre

Coach · Luis Garcia

Substitutes

25 · Pichu Cuellar

13 · L. Bergstrom

3 · T. Lato

4 · D. Lopez

34 · M. Calatayud

10 · S. Darder

2 · G. Fernandez

9 · A. Prats

16 · A. Buksa

17 · A. Puigmal

11 · Z. Luvumbo

30 · J. Kalumba

Las Palmas

4-5-1

13 J. Caro

25 V. Pezzolesi

4 Alex Suarez

15 J. Herzog

44 A. Rodriguez

11 T. Miyashiro

12 E. Loiodice

6 I. Gonzalez

20 K. Rodriguez

24 Ivan Jaime

7 J. Betancor

Coach · Ruben de la Barrera

Substitutes

35 · A. Suarez

3 · N. Opoku

21 · G. Bonfanti

14 · M. Fuster

23 · A. Rodriguez

16 · M. Acimovic

26 · A. Bassinga

28 · A. Dominguez

30 · I. Medina

29 · E. Romero

32 · R. Cruz

33 · J. Cruz

Our number · mallorca winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

40% The market62%

Us40%

~~Market~~62%

We make Mallorca a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 22 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mallorca win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 59% to 62% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mallorca win	40%	62%	−22
Draw	30%	23%	+8
Las Palmas win	30%	15%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	36%	53%	−17
Both teams to score	43%	51%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	63%	76%	−13
Over 3.5 goals	17%	33%	−16
Mallorca or draw	70%	85%	−14
Mallorca clean sheet	38%	–	–
Las Palmas clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 12.6 11.1 5.5 1 13.4 13.6 6.3 2.1 2 8.0 7.6 3.7 3 3.1 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mallorca down, Las Palmas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,431 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.5% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Mallorca at home: 1.75 scored, 0.25 conceded a game (last 4). Las Palmas away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Mallorca, 0.97 for Las Palmas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División

MALLORCA

WDWWLD3–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

LAS PALMAS

LDWLLD2–5 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eibar	8	+11	21
2	Castellón	8	+12	20
3	Almeria	8	+8	18
4	Sabadell	9	+3	16
5	Girona	8	+6	14
6	Mallorca	8	+5	14
7	Burgos	8	+3	14
8	Sporting Gijon	8	0	13
9	Granada CF	8	0	11
10	Oviedo	8	0	11
11	Celta de Vigo II	9	−1	11
12	Las Palmas	8	−1	11
13	Eldense	9	−1	11
14	Tenerife	8	−2	11
15	Leganes	8	−5	11
16	Valladolid	8	−3	9
17	Cordoba	9	−6	9
18	Real Sociedad II	9	−5	8
19	Cadiz	8	+1	7
20	FC Andorra	8	−3	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	−12	5
22	Albacete	8	−10	1