Leganes v Mallorca prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Leganes 1–1 Mallorca LEGANES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leganes win~~34%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.706

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.751

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leganes win at 34%.
1′KICK-OFF Leganes v Mallorca
4′Much as we predicted: Leganes was 34% before kick-off and our model makes it 34% now. 0–0 · 34–32–34
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Leganes win 33%)
32′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Ismael Gharbi · Leganes
34′We said Leganes at 34%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–21–71
34′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 8–21–71
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Leganes 0–1 Mallorca
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Leganes win: 34% at kick-off, 8% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Mallorca win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 41%)
36′34′: Zito Luvumbo on the scoresheet for Mallorca, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 8–21–71
45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Rubén Pulido · Leganes
45′SECOND HALF Leganes 0–1 Mallorca
47′HALF-TIME Leganes 0–1 Mallorca
51′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Antonio Sánchez · Mallorca
54′We said Leganes at 34%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–19–76
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Luis García Fernández · Mallorca
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Leganes win: 34% at kick-off, 4% now
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Alex Sala · Mallorca
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Alejandro San Cristobal Sanchez · Leganes
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Leganes 1–1 Mallorca
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Leganes win: 34% at kick-off, 23% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Mallorca win 77%)
58′We said Leganes at 34%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–1 · 22–56–22
59′Leganes level it on 57′ through Álex Millán. 1–1. 1–1 · 22–56–22
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Arnau Tenas · Mallorca
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Dani Rodriguez · Leganes
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Mallorca · On: Sergi Darder · Off: Pablo Torre
65′We said Leganes at 34%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–19
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Leganes · On: Zico Buurmeester · Off: Ismael Gharbi
74′We said Leganes at 34%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Leganes · On: Unax del Cura · Off: Álex Millán
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Leganes win: 34% at kick-off, 14% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Leganes · On: Naim Garcia · Off: Dani Rodriguez
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Mallorca · On: Antonio Latorre Grueso · Off: Alberto Moreno
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Leganes · On: Andres Campos · Off: Patrick Soko
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Leganes · On: Yassine Kechta · Off: Amadou Diawara
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Leganes win: 34% at kick-off, 4% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Mallorca · On: Justin Kalumba · Off: Zito Luvumbo
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Mallorca · On: Guille Fernández · Off: Adrian Liso
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Antonio Latorre Grueso · Mallorca
94′Full time, 1–1. We called Leganes at 34% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Leganes 1–1 Mallorca
FTLeganes 1–1 Mallorca · Leganes win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Leganes just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Leganes 34%, draw 31%, Mallorca 34%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Leganes v MallorcaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Leganes win34%

Draw31%

Mallorca win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:15

RoundMatchday 11

VenueMunicipal de Butarque

RefereeOlatz Rivera Olmedo

Line-ups

Leganes

4-2-3-1

Mallorca

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leganes

Mallorca

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

Last match: 17 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Mallorca	10	+7	18
17	Leganes	10	−9	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Leganes

4-2-3-1

1 Raúl Fernández

7 Rubén Peña

4 Rubén Pulido

3 Javi Montero

15 Enric Franquesa

24 A. Diawara

19 P. Soko

22 Álex Sancris

14 Dani Rodríguez

17 Ismaël Gharbi

9 Álex Millán

Coach · Luis Carrión

Substitutes

10 · Z. Buurmeester

2 · Marvel

18 · Andrés Campos

32 · Suleiman El Haddadi Mohamed

11 · Naim García

8 · Y. Kechta

31 · Nico Lozano

39 · Jorge Martínez

5 · Ignasi Miquel

13 · L. Zidane

16 · U. del Cura

Mallorca

4-2-3-1

1 Arnau Tenas

34 M. Calatayud

24 M. Valjent

21 Raíllo

5 Alberto Moreno

6 Antonio Sánchez

33 Adrian Liso

11 Zito Luvumbo

20 Pablo Torre

7 Álex Sala

18 Fuentes

Coach · Luis García

Substitutes

9 · Abdón Prats

29 · L. Orejuela

4 · David López

3 · Toni Lato

30 · J. Kalumba

39 · J. Garcia

2 · Guille Fernández

10 · Darder

25 · Iván Cuéllar

16 · A. Buksa

13 · L. Bergström

22 · A. Souhmahoro

Our number · leganes winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

34% The market28%

Us34%

~~Market~~28%

We make Leganes a 34% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leganes v Mallorca~~1.01 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 18~~17 v 7

~~The market · Leganes win~~28% · ours 34%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Leganes win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leganes win	34%	28%	+6
Draw	31%	30%	+1
Mallorca win	34%	42%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	33%	43%	−10
Both teams to score	40%	49%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	60%	68%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	15%	23%	−8
Leganes or draw	66%	58%	+8
Leganes clean sheet	37%	–	–
Mallorca clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.0%

0123450 14.0 13.1 6.7 2.3 1 13.2 13.7 6.7 2.3 2 6.8 6.7 3.4 3 2.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leganes down, Mallorca across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,451 Segunda División matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.5% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leganes at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mallorca away: 0.40 scored, 0.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Leganes, 1.00 for Mallorca. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MAL 0–0 LEG · LEG 0–1 MAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 13 Sept

LEGANES

LWLLLL0–2 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 0–1

MALLORCA

WWLDWD2–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Almeria	10	+13	24
2	Castellón	10	+14	23
3	Eibar	10	+9	22
4	Granada CF	11	+4	20
5	Sporting Gijon	10	+2	19
6	Girona	10	+8	18
7	Mallorca	10	+7	18
8	Burgos	10	+3	17
9	Oviedo	10	+3	17
10	Sabadell	10	+2	16
11	Eldense	10	0	14
12	Tenerife	10	−2	13
13	Valladolid	11	0	12
14	Celta de Vigo II	10	−1	12
15	Cordoba	10	−5	12
16	Las Palmas	10	−6	11
17	Leganes	10	−9	11
18	FC Andorra	10	−4	10
19	Real Sociedad II	10	−7	8
20	Cadiz	10	−2	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	−13	5
22	Albacete	10	−16	1