Las Palmas v Real Sociedad II prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17

Las Palmas 1–0 Real Sociedad II LAS PALMAS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Las Palmas win~~56%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.293

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.487

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Las Palmas win at 56%.
0′KICK-OFF Las Palmas v Real Sociedad II
2′Little has changed for our model: Las Palmas 56% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–24–21
7′We said Las Palmas at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–7
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Las Palmas 1–0 Real Sociedad II
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Las Palmas win: 56% at kick-off, 79% now
8′Jesé Rodríguez scores for Las Palmas on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–7
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Las Palmas 1–1 Real Sociedad II
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Las Palmas win: 56% at kick-off, 49% now
30′We said Las Palmas at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–6
30′GOAL DISALLOWED · 30' Real Sociedad II
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Las Palmas win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 80–15–6
32′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Las Palmas · On: Andrés Rodríguez Martínez · Off: Giovanni Bonfanti
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Iker Calderon · Real Sociedad II
45′SECOND HALF Las Palmas 1–0 Real Sociedad II
46′HALF-TIME Las Palmas 1–0 Real Sociedad II
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Real Sociedad II · On: Lander Astiazarán · Off: Ibai Aguirre
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Real Sociedad II · On: Alex Lebarbier · Off: Alex Marchal García
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Inaki Ruperez · Real Sociedad II
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Las Palmas · On: Elías Romero · Off: Taisei Miyashiro
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Las Palmas · On: Kirian Rodríguez · Off: Enzo Loiodice
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Las Palmas · On: Mateo Acimovic · Off: Manu Fuster
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Sergio Viera García · Las Palmas
66′We said Las Palmas at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Las Palmas win: 56% at kick-off, 86% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Real Sociedad II · On: Jon Eceizabarrena · Off: Tomy Carbonell
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Real Sociedad II · On: Arkaitz Mariezkurrena · Off: Gorka Gorosabel
78′We said Las Palmas at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
85′We said Las Palmas at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
86′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Jesé Rodríguez · Las Palmas
86′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Las Palmas · On: Aboubacar Bassinga · Off: Sergio Viera García
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Real Sociedad II · On: Javier Soroeta · Off: Dani Diaz
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Las Palmas win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Aboubacar Bassinga · Las Palmas
FTFULL TIME Las Palmas 1–0 Real Sociedad II
FTLas Palmas 1–0 Real Sociedad II · Las Palmas win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Las Palmas are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Las Palmas 56%, draw 24%, Real Sociedad II 21%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Las Palmas v Real Sociedad IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Las Palmas win56%

Draw24%

Real Sociedad II win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueGran Canaria

RefereeMorales Moreno Pablo

Line-ups

Las Palmas

4-4-2

Real Sociedad II

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Las Palmas

Real Sociedad II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Las Palmas	10	−6	11
19	Real Sociedad II	10	−7	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Las Palmas

4-4-2

13 José Caro

25 Valentín Pezzolesi

4 Álex Suárez

15 Juan Herzog

21 G. Bonfanti

11 T. Miyashiro

34 Sergio Viera

12 E. Loiodice

24 Iván Jaime

10 Jesé

14 Manu Fuster

Coach · Juan Manuel Rodríguez

Substitutes

26 · A. Bassinga

22 · Ale García

7 · Jefté Betancor

16 · Mateo Acimovic

30 · I. Medina

3 · N. Opoku

9 · J. Recoba

23 · A. Rodriguez

20 · Kirian Rodríguez

35 · Adrián Suárez

29 · Elías Romero

43 · Eduard Mohedano Serrano

Real Sociedad II

4-4-2

32 Lander Olasagasti

22 Rupérez

15 I. Calderon

5 K. Kita

3 Jon Balda

7 Dani Díaz

14 Tomás Carbonell

8 Ibai Aguirre

16 Gorka Gorosabel

18 Gorka Carrera

11 Alex Garcia

Coach · Ion Ansotegi

Substitutes

21 · Jon Eceizabarrena

17 · Lander Astiazarán

2 · Jon Garro

6 · A. Lebarbier

10 · Arkaitz Mariezkurrena

12 · J. Oleaga

20 · Sydney Osazuwa

34 · Andrews Adjabeng

23 · Unax Agote

24 · A. Unax

19 · Javier Soroeta

1 · Aitor Fraga

Our number · las palmas winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

56% The market43%

Us56%

~~Market~~43%

We make Las Palmas a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Las Palmas v Real Sociedad II~~1.81 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 11 v 8~~16 v 19

~~The market · Las Palmas win~~43% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Las Palmas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Las Palmas win	56%	43%	+13
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Real Sociedad II win	21%	30%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	53%	55%	−2
Both teams to score	52%	59%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	34%	−3
Las Palmas or draw	79%	70%	+9
Las Palmas clean sheet	37%	–	–
Real Sociedad II clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 6.6 5.9 3.1 1 10.7 11.1 5.4 2 9.8 9.6 4.8 3 5.9 5.8 2.9 4 2.7 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Las Palmas down, Real Sociedad II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,451 Segunda División matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.5% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Las Palmas at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Real Sociedad II away: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Las Palmas, 1.00 for Real Sociedad II. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 17:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~REA 1–1 LAS · LAS 2–1 REA · LAS 0–0 REA · REA 0–1 LAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept

LAS PALMAS

WLLDLL1–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 0–3

REAL SOCIEDAD II

WLLLLL3–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Almeria	10	+13	24
2	Castellón	10	+14	23
3	Eibar	10	+9	22
4	Granada CF	11	+4	20
5	Sporting Gijon	10	+2	19
6	Girona	10	+8	18
7	Mallorca	10	+7	18
8	Burgos	10	+3	17
9	Oviedo	10	+3	17
10	Sabadell	10	+2	16
11	Eldense	10	0	14
12	Tenerife	10	−2	13
13	Valladolid	11	0	12
14	Celta de Vigo II	10	−1	12
15	Cordoba	10	−5	12
16	Las Palmas	10	−6	11
17	Leganes	10	−9	11
18	FC Andorra	10	−4	10
19	Real Sociedad II	10	−7	8
20	Cadiz	10	−2	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	−13	5
22	Albacete	10	−16	1