Granada CF v Valladolid prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:01

Granada CF 2–1 Valladolid GRANADA CF WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Granada CF win~~49%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.393

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.494

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Granada CF win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Granada CF was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–26
1′KICK-OFF Granada CF v Valladolid
14′We published Granada CF at 49%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–9
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Granada CF 1–0 Valladolid
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Granada CF win: 49% at kick-off, 75% now
15′Granada CF ahead on 14′ through Sergio Rodelas Pintor. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–9
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Baïla Diallo · Granada CF
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Thiago Ezequiel Ojeda · Valladolid
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–7
45′SECOND HALF Granada CF 1–0 Valladolid
46′HALF-TIME Granada CF 1–0 Valladolid
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Julien Ponceau · Valladolid
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Granada CF win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
52′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Granada CF · On: Owen Emeka · Off: José Manuel Arnáiz
56′We published Granada CF at 49%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
57′We said Granada CF at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–47–20
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Granada CF 1–1 Valladolid
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Granada CF win: 49% at kick-off, 33% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Granada CF win 80%)
58′Iván Garriel scores for Valladolid on 57′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–48–20
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Juanjo Flores · Granada CF
63′We said Granada CF at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–52–18
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Granada CF win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Granada CF · On: Diego Varela Pampín · Off: Baïla Diallo
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Granada CF · On: Pau Casadesús · Off: Sergio López
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Granada CF · On: Chinaza Onouha · Off: Jorge Pascual Corrected
67′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 83–15–2
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Granada CF 2–1 Valladolid
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Granada CF win: 49% at kick-off, 83% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Granada CF win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 57%)
68′67′: Jorge Pascual on the scoresheet for Granada CF, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 84–14–2
70′We published Granada CF at 49%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Valladolid · On: Kaj de Rooij · Off: Thiago Ezequiel Ojeda
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Valladolid · On: Robin van Duiven · Off: Victor Barbera
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Valladolid · On: Yeray Cabanzón · Off: Tay Abed
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Iván Alejo · Valladolid
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Granada CF win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Granada CF · On: Kader Bamba · Off: Sergio Rodelas Pintor
79′We published Granada CF at 49%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Valladolid · On: Mathis Lachuer · Off: Julien Ponceau
86′We published Granada CF at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Mathis Lachuer · Valladolid
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Valladolid · On: Tomás Fernández Sabatini · Off: Adrian Arnu
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Granada CF win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' David Torres · Valladolid
97′🟥 RED CARD · 90+7' Valladolid
99′A red card for Valladolid on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 99–1–0
99′Full time, 2–1. We called Granada CF at 49% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Granada CF 2–1 Valladolid
FTGranada CF 2–1 Valladolid · Granada CF win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Granada CF are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Granada CF 49%, draw 26%, Valladolid 26%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Granada CF v ValladolidBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Granada CF win49%

Draw26%

Valladolid win26%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueNuevo Los Cármenes

RefereeMarta Huerta de Aza

Line-ups

Granada CF

4-3-3

Valladolid

4-1-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Granada CF

Valladolid

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Granada CF	10	+3	17
13	Valladolid	10	+1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Granada CF

4-3-3

1 Alberto Flores

18 Sergio López

30 Juan José Flores Castro

5 Manu Lama

22 B. Diallo

6 Gumbau

4 Rubén Alcaraz

27 M. Gambin

7 Sergio Rodelas

10 Jorge Pascual

11 José Arnáiz

Coach · José Rojo Martín

Substitutes

2 · Pau Casadesús

17 · K. Bamba

35 · B. Dembele

33 · A. Garcia

23 · B. Gimber

3 · Diego Hormigo

13 · Raúl Lizoain

34 · Manuel Maza Barranco

36 · O. M. Chukwuemeka

19 · Chinaza Onouha

32 · D. Rodriguez

16 · Diego Pampín

Valladolid

4-1-3-2

1 Álvaro Aceves

14 Iván Alejo

15 Pablo Tomeo

4 David Torres

27 Iván Garriel

24 S. Jurić

8 T. Ojeda

23 T. Abed

21 J. Ponceau

17 Victor Barberá

19 Adrian Arnuncio

Coach · Fran Escribá

Substitutes

16 · Álex Balboa

11 · Yeray Cabanzón

18 · Clerc

33 · Tomás Fernández Sabatini

6 · M. Lachuer

26 · L. Lavagnino

13 · Dani Martín

5 · Ramón Martínez

2 · Trilli

22 · K. de Rooij

20 · R. Duiven

3 · Homam Ahmed

Our number · granada cf winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

49% The market43%

Us49%

~~Market~~43%

We make Granada CF a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Granada CF v Valladolid~~1.58 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 12~~7 v 13

~~The market · Granada CF win~~43% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Granada CF win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Granada CF win	49%	43%	+6
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Valladolid win	26%	28%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	49%	47%	+2
Both teams to score	52%	53%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	71%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	27%	27%	0
Granada CF or draw	74%	72%	+2
Granada CF clean sheet	35%	–	–
Valladolid clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.6 7.4 4.1 1 10.9 12.1 6.3 2.3 2 8.8 9.2 4.9 3 4.7 4.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Granada CF down, Valladolid across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,450 Segunda División matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Granada CF at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Valladolid away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Granada CF, 1.07 for Valladolid. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 19:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GRA 5–1 VAL · VAL 2–1 GRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept

GRANADA CF

DLLWWW1–1 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 2–0

VALLADOLID

LDWDWL0–3 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 5–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Almeria	10	+13	24
2	Castellón	10	+14	23
3	Eibar	10	+9	22
4	Sporting Gijon	10	+2	19
5	Girona	10	+8	18
6	Mallorca	10	+7	18
7	Granada CF	10	+3	17
8	Burgos	10	+3	17
9	Oviedo	10	+3	17
10	Sabadell	10	+2	16
11	Eldense	10	0	14
12	Tenerife	10	−2	13
13	Valladolid	10	+1	12
14	Celta de Vigo II	10	−1	12
15	Cordoba	10	−5	12
16	Las Palmas	10	−6	11
17	Leganes	10	−9	11
18	FC Andorra	10	−4	10
19	Real Sociedad II	10	−7	8
20	Cadiz	10	−2	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	−13	5
22	Albacete	10	−16	1