Granada CF v Cadiz prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Granada CF 2–0 Cadiz GRANADA CF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Granada CF win~~51%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.355

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.384

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Granada CF win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Granada CF was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–24
1′KICK-OFF Granada CF v Cadiz
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Granada CF win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Granada CF
45′HALF-TIME Granada CF 0–0 Cadiz
45′SECOND HALF Granada CF 0–0 Cadiz
46′We said Granada CF at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–39–21
50′We published Granada CF at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Granada CF 1–0 Cadiz
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Granada CF win: 51% at kick-off, 80% now
51′Granada CF ahead on 50′ through Gerard Gumbau. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Granada CF win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Cadiz · On: Urko Iruretagoiena Lertxundi · Off: Aimen Moueffek
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Cadiz · On: Borja Vazquez · Off: Antonio Cordero
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Granada CF · On: Diego Varela Pampín · Off: Baïla Diallo
67′We published Granada CF at 51%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
67′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Granada CF 2–0 Cadiz
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Granada CF win: 51% at kick-off, 98% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Cadiz · On: Jandro Orellana · Off: Marc-Olivier Doué
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Cadiz · On: Juan Díaz Peregrina · Off: Beñat de Jesús Domingo
68′Jorge Pascual scores for Granada CF on 67′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Granada CF · On: Diego Hormigo · Off: Rubén Alcaraz
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Granada CF · On: Owen Emeka · Off: Sergio Rodelas Pintor
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Granada CF · On: Chinaza Onouha · Off: Jorge Pascual
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Cadiz · On: Bojan Kovacevic · Off: Javier Castro
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Vladyslav Kopotun · Cadiz
81′We published Granada CF at 51%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Granada CF · On: Mario Jiménez Gambín · Off: José Manuel Arnáiz
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Borja Vazquez · Cadiz
94′Full time, 2–0. We called Granada CF at 51% — that one lands. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Granada CF 2–0 Cadiz
FTGranada CF 2–0 Cadiz · Granada CF win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Granada CF are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Granada CF 51%, draw 25%, Cadiz 24%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Granada CF v CadizBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Granada CF win51%

Draw25%

Cadiz win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:15

RoundMatchday 10

VenueNuevo Los Cármenes

RefereeRafael Sanchez Lopez

Line-ups

Granada CF

4-4-2

Cadiz

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Granada CF

Cadiz

6Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

Last match: 11 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Granada CF	9	+1	14
20	Cadiz	9	0	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Granada CF

4-4-2

1 A. Flores

18 S. Lopez

30 Juanjo

5 M. Lama

22 B. Diallo

7 S. Rodelas

4 R. Alcaraz

6 G. Gumbau

11 J. M. Arnaiz

8 P. Aleman

10 J. Pascual

Coach · Pacheta

Substitutes

37 · I. Garcia

23 · B. Gimber

16 · D. Varela Pampin

3 · D. Hormigo

2 · P. Casadesus

35 · B. Dembele

33 · A. Garcia

27 · M. Jimenez Gambin

32 · D. Rodriguez

17 · K. Bamba

36 · O. M. Chukwuemeka

19 · C. Onouha

Cadiz

4-2-3-1

1 D. Gil

2 B. de Jesus

4 J. Castro

6 M. Fernandez

3 S. Arribas

5 M. Doue

28 D. A. Zarate Hidalgo

24 I. Sanchez

17 A. Moueffek

16 A. Cordero

21 V. Kopotun

Coach · Albert Celades

Substitutes

13 · J. Ezkieta

22 · C. Gutierrez

14 · B. Kovacevic

27 · J. Diaz Peregrina

31 · N. Ukwuije

18 · Jandro

23 · D. Rodriguez

8 · E. Aghama

9 · A. Pascual

10 · J. Ontiveros

19 · Izeta

20 · B. Vazquez

Our number · granada cf winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market49%

Us51%

~~Market~~49%

We make Granada CF a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Granada CF v Cadiz~~1.64 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 7~~10 v 20

~~The market · Granada CF win~~49% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Granada CF win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Granada CF win	51%	49%	+2
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Cadiz win	24%	24%	0
Over 2.5 goals	50%	49%	+1
Both teams to score	52%	53%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	73%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	28%	0
Granada CF or draw	76%	76%	0
Granada CF clean sheet	36%	–	–
Cadiz clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.4 6.9 3.7 1 11.1 11.9 5.9 2.1 2 9.3 9.4 4.8 3 5.1 5.2 2.6 4 2.1 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Granada CF down, Cadiz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,444 Segunda División matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.12 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Granada CF at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cadiz away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Granada CF, 1.02 for Cadiz. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 14:49. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.12

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~CAD 1–2 GRA · GRA 0–0 CAD · CAD 1–0 GRA · GRA 0–0 CAD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 6 Sept

GRANADA CF

LDLLWW0–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 1–0

CADIZ

LLLDWL2–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Almeria	10	+13	24
2	Castellón	10	+14	23
3	Eibar	10	+9	22
4	Sporting Gijon	10	+2	19
5	Mallorca	10	+7	18
6	Sabadell	9	+3	16
7	Girona	9	+6	15
8	Burgos	9	+2	14
9	Oviedo	9	+2	14
10	Granada CF	9	+1	14
11	Valladolid	9	+2	12
12	Tenerife	9	−2	12
13	Cordoba	10	−5	12
14	Celta de Vigo II	9	−1	11
15	Eldense	9	−1	11
16	Las Palmas	10	−6	11
17	Leganes	10	−9	11
18	FC Andorra	9	−2	10
19	Real Sociedad II	10	−7	8
20	Cadiz	9	0	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	−12	5
22	Albacete	10	−16	1