Girona v FC Andorra prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:01

Girona 2–0 FC Andorra GIRONA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Girona win~~50%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.371

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.327

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Girona win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Girona 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
1′KICK-OFF Girona v FC Andorra
5′We said Girona at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–15–9
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Girona 1–0 FC Andorra
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Girona win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
6′5′: Bryan Gil on the scoresheet for Girona, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–16–9
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Girona 1–1 FC Andorra
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Girona win: 50% at kick-off, 48% now
14′GOAL DISALLOWED · 14' FC Andorra
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Girona win: 50% at kick-off, 76% now
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Marc Doménech Costa · FC Andorra
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–7
31′We said Girona at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Girona 2–0 FC Andorra
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Girona win: 50% at kick-off, 93% now
32′Girona ahead on 31′ through Vladyslav Vanat. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
42′We said Girona at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
45′SECOND HALF Girona 2–0 FC Andorra
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Andorra · On: Julian Rijkhoff · Off: Diego Díaz
47′HALF-TIME Girona 2–0 FC Andorra
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Andorra · On: Hugo López · Off: Sergio Molina
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Andorra · On: Lautaro De León · Off: Jordi Cano
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Diego Alende · FC Andorra
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Girona · On: Yaser Asprilla · Off: Bryan Gil
67′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Alejandro Francés · Girona
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Oleksandr Pyshchur · Girona
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Girona · On: Unai Hernández · Off: Vladyslav Vanat
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Girona · On: Javier Boñar · Off: Mateu Morey
81′We said Girona at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Girona win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Andorra · On: Randy Schneider · Off: Lautaro Marco Spatz
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Girona · On: Abel Ruíz · Off: Oleksandr Pyshchur
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Girona · On: Portu · Off: Carles Pérez
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' FC Andorra · On: Nacho Quintana · Off: Efe Akman
FTFULL TIME Girona 2–0 FC Andorra
FTGirona 2–0 FC Andorra · Girona win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Girona are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Girona 50%, draw 25%, FC Andorra 25%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Girona v FC AndorraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Girona win50%

Draw25%

FC Andorra win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueEstadi Montilivi

RefereeDamaso Arcediano Monescillo

Line-ups

Girona

4-4-2

FC Andorra

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Girona

FC Andorra

6Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

Last match: 11 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Girona	9	+6	15
18	FC Andorra	9	−2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Girona

4-4-2

13 P. Gazzaniga

3 M. Morey

5 D. Lopez

16 A. Frances

11 A. Moreno

23 C. Perez

24 I. Gonzalez

8 F. Beltran

17 B. Gil

19 V. Vanat

15 O. Pyshchur

Coach · Quique Alvarez

Substitutes

25 · V. Krapyvtsov

4 · J. Bonar

2 · A. Mumin

33 · M. Furtado

38 · H. Zamorano

6 · D. van de Beek

29 · L. Kourouma

14 · I. Morante

30 · U. Hernandez

10 · Portu

9 · A. Ruiz

22 · Y. Asprilla

FC Andorra

4-3-3

25 J. Owono

17 T. Carrique

3 L. M. Spatz

23 D. Alende

20 M. Vila

10 M. Domenech

14 S. Molina

8 E. Akman

22 D. Diaz

15 J. Cano

21 M. Sidibe

Coach · Carles Manso

Substitutes

1 · N. Ratti

2 · J. Sebastian

19 · Quintana Nacho

16 · R. Schneider

6 · H. Solozabal

28 · T. Olmedo

12 · E. Sali

9 · J. Rijkhoff

27 · S. Golubovic

11 · Lauti

29 · H. Lopez

Our number · girona winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 15:08 · locked at kick-off

50% The market53%

Us50%

~~Market~~53%

We make Girona a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Girona v FC Andorra~~1.63 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 10~~7 v 18

~~The market · Girona win~~53% · ours 50%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Girona win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Girona win	50%	53%	−3
Draw	25%	25%	0
FC Andorra win	25%	22%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	50%	56%	−6
Both teams to score	52%	56%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	78%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	35%	−7
Girona or draw	75%	78%	−3
Girona clean sheet	35%	–	–
FC Andorra clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.4 7.0 3.9 1 10.9 11.8 6.1 2.2 2 9.0 9.2 4.9 3 4.9 5.0 2.7 4 2.1 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Girona down, FC Andorra across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,444 Segunda División matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Girona at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). FC Andorra away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Girona, 1.06 for FC Andorra. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 17:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 5 Sept

GIRONA

WLWWDD2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

FC ANDORRA

LLLWDW0–1 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Almeria	10	+13	24
2	Castellón	10	+14	23
3	Eibar	10	+9	22
4	Sporting Gijon	10	+2	19
5	Mallorca	10	+7	18
6	Sabadell	9	+3	16
7	Girona	9	+6	15
8	Burgos	9	+2	14
9	Oviedo	9	+2	14
10	Granada CF	9	+1	14
11	Valladolid	9	+2	12
12	Tenerife	9	−2	12
13	Cordoba	10	−5	12
14	Celta de Vigo II	9	−1	11
15	Eldense	9	−1	11
16	Las Palmas	10	−6	11
17	Leganes	10	−9	11
18	FC Andorra	9	−2	10
19	Real Sociedad II	10	−7	8
20	Cadiz	9	0	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	−12	5
22	Albacete	10	−16	1