Girona v Celta de Vigo II prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17

Girona 5–1 Celta de Vigo II GIRONA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Girona win~~54%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.317

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.130

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Girona win at 54%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Girona 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–21
2′KICK-OFF Girona v Celta de Vigo II
16′We said Girona at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–7
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Girona 1–0 Celta de Vigo II
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Girona win: 54% at kick-off, 79% now
17′17′: Vladyslav Vanat on the scoresheet for Girona, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–7
19′We said Girona at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–2
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Girona 2–0 Celta de Vigo II
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Girona win: 54% at kick-off, 93% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Girona win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
21′Girona ahead on 20′ through Unai Hernández. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
27′🟥 RED CARD · 27' Celta de Vigo II
29′We said Girona at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
29′Celta de Vigo II are down to ten from 28′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–0 · 99–1–0
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Girona 3–0 Celta de Vigo II
30′Vladyslav Vanat scores for Girona on 29′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
31′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
38′We said Girona at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Girona 4–0 Celta de Vigo II
39′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
40′38′: Carles Pérez on the scoresheet for Girona, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Hugo Cuenca · Celta de Vigo II
45′SECOND HALF Girona 4–0 Celta de Vigo II
50′HALF-TIME Girona 4–0 Celta de Vigo II
55′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Girona 5–0 Celta de Vigo II
56′Girona ahead on 55′ through Vladyslav Vanat. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Celta de Vigo II · On: Mateo Sobral Sabajanes · Off: Frank Germain Jonathan Miller
59′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Celta de Vigo II · On: Seyni Mbaye Ndiaye · Off: Hugo Cuenca
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Girona 5–1 Celta de Vigo II
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Girona · On: Abdul Mumin · Off: Mateu Morey
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Girona · On: Iván Morante · Off: Fran Beltran
61′Óscar Marcos scores for Celta de Vigo II on 59′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Girona · On: Donny van de Beek · Off: Unai Hernández
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Celta de Vigo II · On: Jan Oliveras · Off: Ángel Arcos
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Girona · On: Oleksandr Pyshchur · Off: Vladyslav Vanat
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Girona · On: Christian Stuani · Off: Carles Pérez
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Celta de Vigo II · On: Stefan Bajcetic · Off: Óscar Marcos
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Celta de Vigo II · On: Aldrine Kibet · Off: Adrià Capdevila
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Jan Oliveras · Celta de Vigo II
92′5–1 at the end. Our 54% on Girona comes in. 5–1 · 100–0–0
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Joel Lopez · Celta de Vigo II
FTFULL TIME Girona 5–1 Celta de Vigo II
FTGirona 5–1 Celta de Vigo II · Girona win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Girona are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Girona 54%, draw 25%, Celta de Vigo II 21%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Girona v Celta de Vigo IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Girona win54%

Draw25%

Celta de Vigo II win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueEstadi Montilivi

RefereeJose Guzman

Line-ups

Girona

4-2-3-1

Celta de Vigo II

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Girona

Celta de Vigo II

6Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

Last match: 19 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Girona	10	+8	18
14	Celta de Vigo II	10	−1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Girona

4-2-3-1

13 P. Gazzaniga

3 Mateu Morey

5 David López

16 Alejandro Francés

11 Álex Moreno

8 Fran Beltrán

24 I. Gonzalez

22 Y. Asprilla

23 Carles Pérez

30 Unai Hernández

19 V. Vanat

Coach · Quique Álvarez

Substitutes

10 · Portu

25 · V. Krapyvtsov

33 · M. Furtado

14 · Iván Morante

2 · A. Mumin

6 · D. van de Beek

38 · Holmes Zamorano

7 · C. Stuani

9 · Abel Ruiz

15 · Oleksandr Pishchur

1 · Sergi Puig

29 · L. Kourouma

Celta de Vigo II

3-4-2-1

1 Coke Carrillo

3 K. Ribes

6 P. Meixus

2 P. Gavian

23 G. Miller

16 Adrià Capdevila

17 H. Cuenca

18 Joel López

10 O. Marcos

11 Ángel Arcos

9 A. Marin

Coach · Fredi

Substitutes

25 · M. Gonzalez

29 · M. Sobral

27 · Noah Rodríguez Guallar

26 · Jorge Pérez-Lafuente Rey

14 · Jan Oliveras

4 · S. M. Ndiaye

15 · A. Kibet

28 · Vladimir Henrique Silva

19 · A. Davila Outerelo

13 · Caio Barone

22 · Stefan Bajčetić

Our number · girona winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

54% The market71%

Us54%

~~Market~~71%

We make Girona a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Girona v Celta de Vigo II~~1.71 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 18 v 12~~6 v 14

~~The market · Girona win~~71% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Girona win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Girona win	54%	71%	−17
Draw	25%	18%	+7
Celta de Vigo II win	21%	11%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	50%	62%	−12
Both teams to score	51%	52%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	82%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	28%	41%	−13
Girona or draw	79%	89%	−10
Girona clean sheet	38%	–	–
Celta de Vigo II clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 7.5 6.5 3.3 1 11.4 11.5 5.5 2 9.9 9.4 4.6 3 5.6 5.4 2.6 4 2.5 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Girona down, Celta de Vigo II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,451 Segunda División matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.5% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Girona at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Celta de Vigo II away: 1.00 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Girona, 0.98 for Celta de Vigo II. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 17:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept

GIRONA

LWWDDW1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

CELTA DE VIGO II

LLDLWD0–4 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 4–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Almeria	10	+13	24
2	Castellón	10	+14	23
3	Eibar	10	+9	22
4	Granada CF	11	+4	20
5	Sporting Gijon	10	+2	19
6	Girona	10	+8	18
7	Mallorca	10	+7	18
8	Burgos	10	+3	17
9	Oviedo	10	+3	17
10	Sabadell	10	+2	16
11	Eldense	10	0	14
12	Tenerife	10	−2	13
13	Valladolid	11	0	12
14	Celta de Vigo II	10	−1	12
15	Cordoba	10	−5	12
16	Las Palmas	10	−6	11
17	Leganes	10	−9	11
18	FC Andorra	10	−4	10
19	Real Sociedad II	10	−7	8
20	Cadiz	10	−2	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	−13	5
22	Albacete	10	−16	1