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FC Andorra v Castellón

FC Andorra

1–0Full time

Castellón

Segunda División · SUN 11 OCT · Estadi de la FAF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

FC Andorra 1–0 Castellón FC ANDORRA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Andorra win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.595

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Andorra win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Andorra was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–37
2′Much as we predicted: FC Andorra was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–37
6′7′ and it is 1–0: FC Andorra have scored. 1–0 · 63–20–17
8′7′ and it is 0–0: Efe Akman on the scoresheet for FC Andorra. 0–0 · 37–26–37 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' FC Andorra win: 37% at kick-off, 63% now
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' FC Andorra win: 37% at kick-off, 37% now
12′We published FC Andorra at 37%. Our model now makes it 63%. 1–0 · 63–21–16
12′13′ and it is 1–0: Moró Sidibe on the scoresheet for FC Andorra. 1–0 · 63–21–16
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' FC Andorra 1–0 Castellón · Efe Akman
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' FC Andorra win: 37% at kick-off, 63% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' FC Andorra win: 37% at kick-off, 37% now
12′⚽ GOAL · 13' FC Andorra 1–0 Castellón · Moró Sidibe
14′13′ and it is 1–0: Moró Sidibe on the scoresheet for FC Andorra. 1–0 · 64–21–16
15′We published FC Andorra at 37%. Our model now makes it 64%. 1–0 · 64–21–15
21′We published FC Andorra at 37%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–0 · 65–21–14
22′We published FC Andorra at 37%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–0 · 65–21–14
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 66–22–13
30′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Efe Akman · FC Andorra
32′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 66–22–12
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' FC Andorra win: 37% at kick-off, 66% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' FC Andorra win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' FC Andorra win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' FC Andorra win: 37% at kick-off, 66% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' FC Andorra win: 37% at kick-off, 66% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' FC Andorra win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
37′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Marc Doménech Costa · FC Andorra
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' FC Andorra win: 37% at kick-off, 66% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' FC Andorra win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
45′SECOND HALF FC Andorra 1–0 Castellón
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Castellón · On: Alvaro Martin · Off: Lucas Alcázar Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Castellón · On: Íñigo Córdoba · Off: Lucas Alcázar
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' FC Andorra win: 37% at kick-off, 69% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Castellón · On: Álvaro García Arana · Off: Pablo Santiago
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Castellón · On: rodrigo rego · Off: Diego Barri
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' FC Andorra · On: Randy Schneider · Off: Efe Akman
66′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Lautaro Marco Spatz · FC Andorra
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Andorra · On: Julian Rijkhoff · Off: Diego Díaz
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Andorra · On: Lautaro De León · Off: Jordi Cano
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Andorra · On: Juan Sebastián Serrano · Off: Lautaro Marco Spatz
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Andorra · On: Nacho Quintana · Off: Moró Sidibe
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Andorra · On: Nacho Quintana · Off: Moró Sidibe
91′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Agustín Sienra · Castellón
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Alberto Jiménez · Castellón
92′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Pablo Hernández Domínguez · Castellón
92′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Julian Rijkhoff · FC Andorra
FTFULL TIME FC Andorra 1–0 Castellón
FTFC Andorra 1–0 Castellón · FC Andorra win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

FC Andorra win37%

Draw25%

Castellón win37%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

VenueEstadi de la FAF

RefereeAbraham Domínguez Cervantes

Line-ups

FC Andorra

4-3-3

Castellón

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FC Andorra

Castellón

7Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Castellón	8	+12	20
20	FC Andorra	8	−3	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Andorra

4-3-3

25 J. Owono

17 T. Carrique

3 L. M. Spatz

23 D. Alende

20 M. Vila

10 M. Domenech

14 S. Molina

8 E. Akman

22 D. Diaz

15 J. Cano

21 M. Sidibe

Coach · Carles Manso

Substitutes

1 · N. Ratti

2 · J. Sebastian

19 · Quintana Nacho

16 · R. Schneider

6 · H. Solozabal

28 · T. Olmedo

12 · E. Sali

9 · J. Rijkhoff

27 · S. Golubovic

11 · Lauti

7 · A. Calvo

29 · H. Lopez

Castellón

4-4-2

13 R. Matthys

22 J. Mellot

5 A. Jimenez

4 A. Sienra

12 L. Alcazar

18 P. Santiago

8 Barri

6 M. Orozco

16 A. Jakobsen

10 I. Suero

7 R. Sanchez

Coach · Pablo Hernandez

Substitutes

1 · A. Saipi

20 · Tincho

30 · M. Willman

11 · F. Ceccherini

15 · I. Kostis

23 · A. Garcia

27 · A. Gala

14 · I. Cordoba

24 · D. Muale Nzanza

19 · H. Bellari

21 · Alvaro

26 · R. Rego

Our number · fc andorra winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

37% The market31%

Us37%

~~Market~~31%

We make FC Andorra a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc andorra win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Andorra win	37%	31%	+6
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Castellón win	37%	42%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	55%	58%	−3
Both teams to score	59%	62%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	80%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	38%	−5
FC Andorra or draw	63%	58%	+4
FC Andorra clean sheet	24%	–	–
Castellón clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.0 7.6 5.8 2.8 1 7.6 11.8 8.2 4.0 2 5.8 8.2 6.0 2.9 3 2.8 4.0 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Andorra down, Castellón across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,431 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.5% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Andorra at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Castellón away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for FC Andorra, 1.45 for Castellón. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:05. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CAS 2–0 FCA · FCA 1–3 CAS

Form · last six in Segunda División

FC ANDORRA

LLLLWD0–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 0–0

CASTELLÓN

WWWWWD2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eibar	8	+11	21
2	Castellón	8	+12	20
3	Almeria	8	+8	18
4	Sabadell	9	+3	16
5	Girona	8	+6	14
6	Mallorca	8	+5	14
7	Burgos	8	+3	14
8	Sporting Gijon	8	0	13
9	Granada CF	8	0	11
10	Oviedo	8	0	11
11	Celta de Vigo II	9	−1	11
12	Las Palmas	8	−1	11
13	Eldense	9	−1	11
14	Tenerife	8	−2	11
15	Leganes	8	−5	11
16	Valladolid	8	−3	9
17	Cordoba	9	−6	9
18	Real Sociedad II	9	−5	8
19	Cadiz	8	+1	7
20	FC Andorra	8	−3	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	−12	5
22	Albacete	8	−10	1