FC Andorra v Burgos prediction · Segunda División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FC AndorraDrawBurgos

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Andorra 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Andorra are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Andorra 40%, draw 29%, Burgos 30%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on FC Andorra v BurgosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

FC Andorra win40%

Draw29%

Burgos win30%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueEstadi de la FAF

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Andorra

Burgos

8Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Burgos	10	+3	17
18	FC Andorra	10	−4	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc andorra winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make FC Andorra a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Andorra v Burgos~~1.20 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 17~~18 v 8

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Andorra win	40%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Burgos win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
FC Andorra or draw	70%	–	–
FC Andorra clean sheet	37%	–	–
Burgos clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.5 10.7 5.6 1 12.8 13.4 6.6 2.3 2 7.9 7.9 4.0 3 3.2 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Andorra down, Burgos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,451 Segunda División matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.5% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Andorra at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Burgos away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for FC Andorra, 1.01 for Burgos. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BUR 1–0 FCA · FCA 2–1 BUR · FCA 1–0 BUR · BUR 0–0 FCA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 11 Sept

FC ANDORRA

LLWDWL1–3 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

BURGOS

WWWLLW3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Almeria	10	+13	24
2	Castellón	10	+14	23
3	Eibar	10	+9	22
4	Granada CF	11	+4	20
5	Sporting Gijon	10	+2	19
6	Girona	10	+8	18
7	Mallorca	10	+7	18
8	Burgos	10	+3	17
9	Oviedo	10	+3	17
10	Sabadell	10	+2	16
11	Eldense	10	0	14
12	Tenerife	10	−2	13
13	Valladolid	11	0	12
14	Celta de Vigo II	10	−1	12
15	Cordoba	10	−5	12
16	Las Palmas	10	−6	11
17	Leganes	10	−9	11
18	FC Andorra	10	−4	10
19	Real Sociedad II	10	−7	8
20	Cadiz	10	−2	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	−13	5
22	Albacete	10	−16	1