Eibar v Mallorca prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Eibar 1–1 Mallorca EIBAR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Eibar win~~47%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.789

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.740

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Eibar win at 47%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Eibar 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–29–24
2′KICK-OFF Eibar v Mallorca
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Antonio José Raíllo Arenas · Mallorca
37′8 shots for Mallorca, 0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 39–40–21
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Eibar win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Eibar win 37%)
45′SECOND HALF Eibar 0–0 Mallorca
46′We said Eibar at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–45–20
46′HALF-TIME Eibar 0–0 Mallorca
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Eibar · On: Javier Martón Ansó · Off: Jon Bautista
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Eibar · On: Peru Nolaskoain · Off: Unai Elgezabal Udondo
49′We said Eibar at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–46–20
52′We said Eibar at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–24–67
52′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 8–24–67
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Eibar 0–1 Mallorca
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Eibar win: 47% at kick-off, 8% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Mallorca win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 24%)
53′Mallorca ahead on 52′ through Adrian Fuentes. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–24–68
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Eibar win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
56′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Zito Luvumbo · Mallorca
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Mallorca · On: Guille Fernández · Off: Pablo Torre
65′We said Eibar at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Eibar · On: Pejiño · Off: jon guruzeta
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Eibar · On: Lucas Nuñez Ramirez · Off: Ander Madariaga Susaeta
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Mallorca · On: Antonio Latorre Grueso · Off: Alberto Moreno
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Mallorca · On: Sergi Darder · Off: Zito Luvumbo
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Adrian Fuentes · Mallorca
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Eibar · On: Markel Arana Mateo · Off: Anaitz Arbilla
81′🟥 RED CARD · 81' Mallorca
82′Mallorca are down to ten from 81′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 1–10–90
85′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Abdón Prats · Mallorca
85′PENALTY MISSED · 84' Javier Martón Ansó · Eibar
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Mallorca · On: Miguel Calatayud García · Off: Alex Sala
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Mallorca · On: Adam Buksa · Off: Adrian Fuentes
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Malcom Ares · Eibar
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Eibar 1–1 Mallorca
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Mallorca win 1%)
96′Iván Gil scores for Eibar on 90′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 1–98–1
97′1–1 at the end. Our 47% on Eibar misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Eibar 1–1 Mallorca
FTEibar 1–1 Mallorca · Eibar win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Eibar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Eibar 47%, draw 29%, Mallorca 24%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Eibar v MallorcaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Eibar win47%

Draw29%

Mallorca win24%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:15

RoundMatchday 10

VenueIpurua Municipal Stadium

RefereeIosu Galech Apezteguia

Line-ups

Eibar

4-2-3-1

Mallorca

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Eibar

Mallorca

5Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

Last match: 11 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Eibar	9	+9	21
4	Mallorca	9	+7	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Eibar

4-2-3-1

13 J. Magunagoitia

22 A. Rodriguez

4 U. Elgezabal

23 A. Arbilla

24 J. Bernat

30 A. Garrido

8 A. Madariaga

7 A. Ares

21 I. Gil

10 J. Guruzeta

9 J. Bautista

Coach · Jokin Aranbarri

Substitutes

1 · L. Lopez

2 · S. Cubero

15 · J. Amador

3 · I. Garcia de Albeniz

18 · M. Arana

5 · P. Nolaskoain

11 · J. Magunazelaia Argoitia

27 · E. Gift

28 · L. Nunez

14 · L. Olaetxea

17 · Pejino

20 · Javier Marton

Mallorca

4-4-2

1 A. Tenas

15 J. Donald

24 M. Valjent

21 A. Raillo

5 A. Moreno

11 Z. Luvumbo

7 A. Sala

6 A. Sanchez

33 A. Liso

18 A. Fuentes

20 P. Torre

Coach · Luis Garcia

Substitutes

25 · Pichu Cuellar

13 · L. Bergstrom

22 · A. Soumahoro

3 · T. Lato

4 · D. Lopez

34 · M. Calatayud

10 · S. Darder

2 · G. Fernandez

9 · A. Prats

16 · A. Buksa

30 · J. Kalumba

19 · J. Cerda

Our number · eibar winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:46 · locked at kick-off

47% The market37%

Us47%

~~Market~~37%

We make Eibar a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Eibar v Mallorca~~1.33 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 21 v 17~~2 v 4

~~The market · Eibar win~~37% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Eibar win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eibar win	47%	37%	+10
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Mallorca win	24%	33%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	37%	49%	−12
Both teams to score	42%	55%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	64%	73%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	18%	29%	−11
Eibar or draw	76%	67%	+9
Eibar clean sheet	43%	–	–
Mallorca clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.6%

0123450 11.8 9.4 4.2 1 14.6 12.9 5.4 2 9.8 8.3 3.6 3 4.4 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eibar down, Mallorca across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,440 Segunda División matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Eibar at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Mallorca away: 0.25 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Eibar, 0.85 for Mallorca. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~EIB 1–2 MAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 5 Sept

EIBAR

WWWWWL3–0 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 1–3

MALLORCA

DWWLDW0–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Almeria	9	+11	21
2	Eibar	9	+9	21
3	Castellón	9	+11	20
4	Mallorca	9	+7	17
5	Sabadell	9	+3	16
6	Sporting Gijon	9	+1	16
7	Girona	9	+6	15
8	Burgos	9	+2	14
9	Oviedo	9	+2	14
10	Granada CF	9	+1	14
11	Valladolid	9	+2	12
12	Tenerife	9	−2	12
13	Cordoba	10	−5	12
14	Celta de Vigo II	9	−1	11
15	Eldense	9	−1	11
16	Las Palmas	9	−3	11
17	Leganes	10	−9	11
18	FC Andorra	9	−2	10
19	Real Sociedad II	9	−5	8
20	Cadiz	9	0	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	−12	5
22	Albacete	9	−15	1