Eibar v Almeria prediction · Segunda División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

EibarDrawAlmeria

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Eibar 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Eibar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Eibar 45%, draw 25%, Almeria 30%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Eibar v AlmeriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Eibar win45%

Draw25%

Almeria win30%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:15

RoundMatchday 12

VenueEstadio Municipal de Ipurua

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Eibar

Almeria

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · eibar winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Eibar a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Eibar v Almeria~~1.61 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 22 v 25~~3 v 1

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eibar win	45%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Almeria win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Eibar or draw	70%	–	–
Eibar clean sheet	29%	–	–
Almeria clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.2 7.0 4.6 1 8.9 11.7 7.2 3.0 2 7.3 9.1 5.7 2.4 3 3.9 4.9 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eibar down, Almeria across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,456 Segunda División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Eibar at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Almeria away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Eibar, 1.26 for Almeria. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~EIB 1–0 ALM · ALM 3–1 EIB · EIB 1–0 ALM · ALM 2–2 EIB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 19 Sept

EIBAR

WWWLDL2–1 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–2

ALMERIA

WWWWWD2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 4–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Almeria	11	+13	25
2	Castellón	10	+14	23
3	Eibar	11	+7	22
4	Girona	11	+12	21
5	Granada CF	11	+4	20
6	Mallorca	11	+7	19
7	Sporting Gijon	10	+2	19
8	Oviedo	11	+3	18
9	Burgos	10	+3	17
10	Sabadell	10	+2	16
11	Cordoba	11	−3	15
12	Eldense	10	0	14
13	Las Palmas	11	−5	14
14	Tenerife	10	−2	13
15	Valladolid	11	0	12
16	Celta de Vigo II	11	−5	12
17	Leganes	11	−9	12
18	FC Andorra	10	−4	10
19	Real Sociedad II	11	−8	8
20	Cadiz	10	−2	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	−13	5
22	Albacete	10	−16	1