Cordoba v Eibar prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Cordoba 2–0 Eibar EIBAR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Eibar win~~39%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.647

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.440

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Eibar win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Eibar was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 35–26–39
1′KICK-OFF Cordoba v Eibar
14′We published Eibar at 39%. Our model now makes it 66%. 0–1 · 14–20–66
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Cordoba 0–1 Eibar
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Eibar win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
15′A goal for Eibar on 14′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–20–66
16′Javier Martón Ansó scores for Eibar on 15′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–20–66
17′GOAL DISALLOWED · 17' Eibar
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Eibar win: 39% at kick-off, 37% now
17′SUBSTITUTION · 17' Eibar · On: jon guruzeta · Off: Elijah Gift Izobodo John
18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Daniel Esmoris Tasende · Cordoba
35′Cordoba have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 31–34–34
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Adnane Ghailan Benktib · Cordoba
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Eibar win 35%)
45′SECOND HALF Cordoba 0–0 Eibar
47′Cordoba have had 12 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 29–40–31
47′🟥 RED CARD · 47' Cordoba
50′A red card for Cordoba on 45′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 28–42–31
50′We said Eibar at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–0 · 69–22–8
50′🟨 YELLOW · 45+5' Juan Gutiérrez · Cordoba
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Cordoba 1–0 Eibar
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Eibar win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Cordoba win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 41%)
51′Eder Garcia scores for Cordoba on 50′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–22–8
52′HALF-TIME Cordoba 0–0 Eibar
55′We said Eibar at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
55′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 2–0 · 93–6–1
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Eibar · On: Iván Gil · Off: Pejiño
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Eibar · On: Lucas Nuñez Ramirez · Off: Ander Madariaga Susaeta
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Cordoba 2–0 Eibar
57′56′: Diego Percan on the scoresheet for Cordoba, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Cordoba · On: Salim El Jebari · Off: Diego Bri
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Cordoba · On: Victor Sánchez Morales · Off: Diego Percan
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Cordoba · On: Carlos Albarran · Off: Daniel Esmoris Tasende
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Eibar · On: Markel Arana Mateo · Off: Jair Amador
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Eibar · On: Jon Bautista · Off: Javier Martón Ansó
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Cordoba · On: Rubén González Alves · Off: Daniel Budesca
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Cordoba · On: Damián Cáceres Rodríguez · Off: Adnane Ghailan Benktib
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Lucas Nuñez Ramirez · Eibar
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Iker Álvarez · Cordoba
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Imanol García · Eibar
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Álex Martín · Cordoba
95′Full time, 2–0. We called Eibar at 39% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Cordoba 2–0 Eibar
FTCordoba 2–0 Eibar · Eibar win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Eibar just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Cordoba 35%, draw 26%, Eibar 39%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Cordoba v EibarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Cordoba win35%

Draw26%

Eibar win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel

RefereeGordillo, Juan

Line-ups

Cordoba

4-3-3

Eibar

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cordoba

Eibar

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

Last match: 17 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Eibar	10	+9	22
15	Cordoba	10	−5	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cordoba

4-3-3

1 Iker Álvarez

30 Daniel Budesca

5 Juan Gutiérrez

4 Álex Martín

3 Dani Tasende

28 Eder García

8 Isma Ruiz

14 Adnane Ghailan

23 Cristian Carracedo

9 Percan

11 Diego Bri

Coach · Iván Ania

Substitutes

13 · Guilherme Fernandes

27 · Egoitz Muñoz

21 · Carlos Albarrán

16 · Rubén Alves

20 · Nélson Monte

7 · T. Zidane

18 · Enol Rodríguez

19 · Ibai Sanz

24 · S. El Jebari

15 · V. Sanchez

6 · D. Caceres

Eibar

4-2-3-1

13 Jon Mikel

2 Sergio Cubero

5 Peru Nolaskoain

15 Jair Amador

3 Imanol García de Albéniz

8 Ander Madariaga

30 Aleix Garrido

17 Pejiño

11 Jon Magunazelaia

27 Elijah Gift Izobodo John

20 Javi Martón

Coach · Jokin Arambarri

Substitutes

9 · Jon Bautista

10 · Jon Guruzeta

21 · Iván Gil

14 · Olaetxea

19 · Eric Pérez

22 · Álvaro Rodríguez

34 · Oier Llorente

1 · Luis López

28 · Lucas Nuñez

36 · Haritz Ortuzar

18 · M. Arana

Our number · eibar winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

39% The market28%

Us39%

~~Market~~28%

We make Eibar a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cordoba v Eibar~~1.33 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 22~~15 v 3

~~The market · Eibar win~~28% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Eibar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cordoba win	35%	46%	−11
Draw	26%	26%	0
Eibar win	39%	28%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	52%	59%	−7
Both teams to score	56%	62%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	76%	80%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	38%	−8
Cordoba or draw	61%	72%	−11
Cordoba clean sheet	24%	–	–
Eibar clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.9 8.9 6.5 3.1 1 8.2 12.2 8.4 4.0 2 5.6 7.9 5.6 2.7 3 2.5 3.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cordoba down, Eibar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,451 Segunda División matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.5% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cordoba at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Eibar away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Cordoba, 1.42 for Eibar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~EIB 2–0 COR · COR 0–0 EIB · EIB 4–1 COR · COR 2–1 EIB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept

CORDOBA

LWLWLW0–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

EIBAR

WWWWLD4–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Almeria	10	+13	24
2	Castellón	10	+14	23
3	Eibar	10	+9	22
4	Granada CF	11	+4	20
5	Sporting Gijon	10	+2	19
6	Girona	10	+8	18
7	Mallorca	10	+7	18
8	Burgos	10	+3	17
9	Oviedo	10	+3	17
10	Sabadell	10	+2	16
11	Eldense	10	0	14
12	Tenerife	10	−2	13
13	Valladolid	11	0	12
14	Celta de Vigo II	10	−1	12
15	Cordoba	10	−5	12
16	Las Palmas	10	−6	11
17	Leganes	10	−9	11
18	FC Andorra	10	−4	10
19	Real Sociedad II	10	−7	8
20	Cadiz	10	−2	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	−13	5
22	Albacete	10	−16	1