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Celta de Vigo II v Tenerife

Celta de Vigo II
1–1Full time
Tenerife

Segunda División · MON 19 OCT · Municipal de Balaídos

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 22:30
Celta de Vigo II 1–1 Tenerife CELTA DE VIGO II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Celta de Vigo II win48%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.819
The market’s Brier score0.747

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Celta de Vigo II win at 48%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Celta de Vigo II 48% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–25
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Celta de Vigo II v Tenerife
  4. 10′🟨 YELLOW · 10' César Álvarez Abrante · Tenerife
  5. 28′We said Celta de Vigo II at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–7
  6. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Celta de Vigo II 1–0 Tenerife
  7. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
  8. 29′Alvaro·Marin Sesma scores for Celta de Vigo II on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–6
  10. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
  11. 43′SUBSTITUTION · 43' Celta de Vigo II · On: Alexis Olmedo Vila · Off: Enrique Ribes Recaj
  12. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Enrique Ribes Recaj · Celta de Vigo II
  13. 45′SECOND HALF Celta de Vigo II 1–0 Tenerife
  14. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Tenerife · On: Juanjo Sánchez · Off: Jesus Alvarez
  15. 47′HALF-TIME Celta de Vigo II 1–0 Tenerife
  16. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Tenerife · On: A. Krdžalić · Off: Mauro Pitton
  17. 49′We said Celta de Vigo II at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 35–44–21
  18. 49′Celta de Vigo II have had 11 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 35–44–21
  19. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Celta de Vigo II 1–1 Tenerife
  20. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 35% now
  21. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Celta de Vigo II win 79%)
  22. 51′50′: Nacho Gil on the scoresheet for Tenerife, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 34–45–21
  23. 52′We said Celta de Vigo II at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–46–20
  24. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Tenerife · On: Noel López · Off: Dani Fernández
  25. 61′We said Celta de Vigo II at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–53–18
  26. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
  27. 64′12 shots for Celta de Vigo II, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 27–56–17
  28. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Celta de Vigo II · On: Frank Germain Jonathan Miller · Off: Pablo Gavián Alonso
  29. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Celta de Vigo II · On: Jan Oliveras · Off: Aldrine Kibet
  30. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Tenerife · On: Jesús De Miguel Alameda · Off: Christian Pierre Louis Gomis
  31. 68′We said Celta de Vigo II at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–60–15
  32. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Jorge Moreno San Vidal · Tenerife
  33. 74′We said Celta de Vigo II at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–12
  34. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
  35. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Frank Germain Jonathan Miller · Celta de Vigo II
  36. 79′We said Celta de Vigo II at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–9
  37. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Celta de Vigo II · On: Vladimir Henrique Silva · Off: Ángel Arcos
  38. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Celta de Vigo II · On: Mateo Sobral Sabajanes · Off: Hugo Cuenca
  39. 84′We said Celta de Vigo II at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–6
  40. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
  41. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Tenerife · On: Fabricio Assis de Souza Barbosa · Off: Enric Gallego
  42. 91′We said Celta de Vigo II at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–3
  43. 94′PENALTY MISSED · 90+3' Nacho Gil · Tenerife
  44. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Óscar Marcos · Celta de Vigo II
  45. FTFULL TIME Celta de Vigo II 1–1 Tenerife
  46. FTCelta de Vigo II 1–1 Tenerife · Celta de Vigo II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Celta de Vigo II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Celta de Vigo II 48%, draw 27%, Tenerife 25%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Celta de Vigo II v TenerifeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Celta de Vigo II win48%
Draw27%
Tenerife win25%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueMunicipal de Balaídos

RefereeGonzalo Romero Freixas

Line-ups

Celta de Vigo II

3-4-3

Tenerife

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Celta de Vigo II

Tenerife

9Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

Last match: 12 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
13Tenerife9−212
15Celta de Vigo II9−111

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Celta de Vigo II

3-4-3

1 Coke Carrillo

3 K. Ribes

6 P. Meixus

18 Joel López

2 P. Gavian

17 H. Cuenca

16 Adrià Capdevila

11 Ángel Arcos

15 A. Kibet

9 A. Marin

10 O. Marcos

Coach · Fredi

Substitutes

31 · Raúl Chirveches Sánchez

19 · A. Davila Outerelo

25 · M. Gonzalez

28 · Vladimir Henrique Silva

23 · G. Miller

14 · Jan Oliveras

21 · Alexis Olmedo

26 · Jorge Pérez-Lafuente Rey

27 · Noah Rodríguez Guallar

29 · M. Sobral

13 · Caio Barone

Tenerife

4-4-2

1 Dani Martín

19 César Álvarez

5 Jorge Moreno

12 A. Landázuri

2 David Rodríguez

29 Daniel Fernández

20 M. Pittón

16 Jesús Álvarez

10 Nacho Gil

17 C. Gomis

18 Enric Gallego

Coach · Álvaro

Substitutes

7 · M. Pečar

21 · Marc Mateu

11 · Noel López

40 · Gabriel Lozano

4 · José León

23 · A. Krdžalić

3 · R. Jureškin

22 · G. Ranos

6 · Juanjo

27 · N. Viereck

9 · De Miguel

15 · Fabricio

Our number · celta de vigo ii winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
48% The market36%
Us48%
Market36%

We make Celta de Vigo II a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Celta de Vigo II v Tenerife1.44 – 0.96
Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 5 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W1 D3 L2
Table places · points 11 v 1215 v 13
The market · Celta de Vigo II win36% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45%50% 13 OCT 05:4719 OCT 19:12
Our probability · Celta de Vigo II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 35% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Celta de Vigo II win48%36%+12
Draw27%29%−2
Tenerife win25%35%−10
Over 2.5 goals43%46%−3
Both teams to score47%53%−6
Over 1.5 goals69%71%−2
Over 3.5 goals22%25%−3
Celta de Vigo II or draw75%65%+10
Celta de Vigo II clean sheet39%––
Tenerife clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%
0123450 9.7 8.5 4.2 1 12.8 12.6 5.9 2 9.3 8.8 4.2 3 4.5 4.2 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Celta de Vigo II down, Tenerife across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsCEL 1–1 TEN · TEN 4–0 CEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 5 Sept

CELTA DE VIGO II

WLLDLW2–0 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 4–1

TENERIFE

DWLDLD1–1 · 2–0 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Almeria10+1324
2Castellón10+1423
3Eibar10+922
4Sporting Gijon10+219
5Girona10+818
6Mallorca10+718
7Granada CF10+317
8Burgos10+317
9Oviedo10+317
10Sabadell10+216
11Eldense10014
12Valladolid10+112
13Tenerife9−212
14Cordoba10−512
15Celta de Vigo II9−111
16Las Palmas10−611
17Leganes10−911
18FC Andorra10−410
19Real Sociedad II10−78
20Cadiz10−27
21AD Ceuta FC10−135
22Albacete10−161

The competition's standings before kick-off.