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Celta de Vigo II v Real Sociedad II

Celta de Vigo II

4–1Full time

Real Sociedad II

Segunda División · SAT 10 OCT · Municipal de Balaídos

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:31

Celta de Vigo II 4–1 Real Sociedad II CELTA DE VIGO II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Celta de Vigo II win~~48%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.409

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.612

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Celta de Vigo II win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Celta de Vigo II 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–27
2′Little has changed for our model: Celta de Vigo II 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–27
11′We said Celta de Vigo II at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–10
14′12′ and it is 1–0: Ángel Arcos on the scoresheet for Celta de Vigo II. 1–0 · 73–17–10
32′We said Celta de Vigo II at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
35′Celta de Vigo II ahead on 33′ through Alvaro·Marin Sesma. 3–0. 3–0 · 98–1–0
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
38′Alvaro·Marin Sesma scores for Celta de Vigo II on 36′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
41′We said Celta de Vigo II at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Celta de Vigo II win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
45′SECOND HALF Celta de Vigo II 3–0 Real Sociedad II
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Celta de Vigo II · On: Frank Germain Jonathan Miller · Off: Joel Lopez Corrected
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Celta de Vigo II · On: Seyni Mbaye Ndiaye · Off: Alexis Olmedo Vila Corrected
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Celta de Vigo II 4–0 Real Sociedad II · Alvaro·Marin Sesma
58′⚽ GOAL · 59' Celta de Vigo II 4–0 Real Sociedad II · Aldrine Kibet
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Real Sociedad II · On: Ibai Aguirre · Off: Alex Lebarbier Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Real Sociedad II · On: Jon Garro · Off: Inaki Ruperez Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Real Sociedad II · On: Javier Soroeta · Off: Sydney Osazuwa Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Celta de Vigo II · On: Jan Oliveras · Off: Ángel Arcos Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Celta de Vigo II · On: Hugo Cuenca · Off: Óscar Marcos Corrected
73′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Tomy Carbonell · Real Sociedad II
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Real Sociedad II · On: Andrews Adjabeng · Off: Dani Diaz Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Celta de Vigo II · On: Angel Davila Outerelo · Off: Adrià Capdevila Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Real Sociedad II · On: Jon Eceizabarrena · Off: Gorka Gorosabel Corrected
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Celta de Vigo II 4–1 Real Sociedad II · Aldrine Kibet
86′⚽ GOAL · 87' Celta de Vigo II 4–1 Real Sociedad II · Jon Balda
FTFULL TIME Celta de Vigo II 4–1 Real Sociedad II
FTCelta de Vigo II 4–1 Real Sociedad II · Celta de Vigo II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Celta de Vigo II win48%

Draw25%

Real Sociedad II win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 20:00

Venue · Municipal de Balaídos

Referee · Gordillo, Juan

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Celta de Vigo II

3-4-3

1 J. B. Carrillo

21 A. Olmedo

3 K. Ribes

18 J. Lopez

2 P. Gavian

29 M. Sobral

16 A. Capdevila

11 A. Arcos

15 A. Kibet

9 A. Marin

10 O. Marcos

Coach · Fredi Alvarez

Substitutes

13 · Caio Barone

25 · M. Gonzalez

14 · J. Oliveras

4 · S. M. Ndiaye

17 · H. F. Cuenca Martinez

31 · R. Blanco

27 · N. Rodriguez

23 · G. Milla

28 · Vlad

26 · J. Perez-Lafuente

19 · A. Davila

Real Sociedad II

4-3-3

1 A. Fraga

22 I. Ruperez

15 I. Calderon

5 K. Kita

3 J. Balda

16 G. Gorosabel

14 T. Carbonell

6 A. Lebarbier

7 D. Diaz

20 S. Osazuwa

17 L. Astiazaran

Coach · Ion Ansotegi

Substitutes

32 · L. Olasagasti

35 · D. Galilea

23 · U. Agote

2 · J. Garro

24 · U. Ayo

21 · J. Eceizabarrena

12 · J. Oleaga

8 · I. Aguirre

34 · A. Adjabeng

19 · J. Soroeta

36 · H. Garitaonaindia Uriarte

38 · X. Fernandez

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Celta de Vigo II

3-4-3

1 J. B. Carrillo

21 A. Olmedo

3 K. Ribes

18 J. Lopez

2 P. Gavian

29 M. Sobral

16 A. Capdevila

11 A. Arcos

15 A. Kibet

9 A. Marin

10 O. Marcos

Coach · Fredi Alvarez

Substitutes

13 · Caio Barone

25 · M. Gonzalez

14 · J. Oliveras

4 · S. M. Ndiaye

17 · H. F. Cuenca Martinez

31 · R. Blanco

27 · N. Rodriguez

23 · G. Milla

28 · Vlad

26 · J. Perez-Lafuente

19 · A. Davila

Real Sociedad II

4-3-3

1 A. Fraga

22 I. Ruperez

15 I. Calderon

5 K. Kita

3 J. Balda

16 G. Gorosabel

14 T. Carbonell

6 A. Lebarbier

7 D. Diaz

20 S. Osazuwa

17 L. Astiazaran

Coach · Ion Ansotegi

Substitutes

32 · L. Olasagasti

35 · D. Galilea

23 · U. Agote

2 · J. Garro

24 · U. Ayo

21 · J. Eceizabarrena

12 · J. Oleaga

8 · I. Aguirre

34 · A. Adjabeng

19 · J. Soroeta

36 · H. Garitaonaindia Uriarte

38 · X. Fernandez

Our number · celta de vigo ii winPublished 10 Oct 20:07

48% The market36%

Us48%

~~Market~~36%

We make Celta de Vigo II a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · celta de vigo ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 42% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Celta de Vigo II win	48%	36%	+12
Draw	25%	28%	−2
Real Sociedad II win	27%	36%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	52%	53%	0
Both teams to score	55%	57%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	75%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	31%	−1
Celta de Vigo II or draw	73%	64%	+9
Celta de Vigo II clean sheet	32%	–	–
Real Sociedad II clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.8 6.9 4.2 1 9.8 11.9 6.6 2.6 2 8.2 9.2 5.3 2.1 3 4.5 5.0 2.9 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Celta de Vigo II down, Real Sociedad II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,428 Segunda División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Celta de Vigo II at home: 1.50 scored, 2.25 conceded a game (last 4). Real Sociedad II away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Celta de Vigo II, 1.15 for Real Sociedad II. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 20:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División

CELTA DE VIGO II

LWLLDL1–2 · 2–0 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–3

REAL SOCIEDAD II

DDWLLL2–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eibar	8	+11	21
2	Castellón	8	+12	20
3	Almeria	8	+8	18
4	Girona	8	+6	14
5	Mallorca	8	+5	14
6	Burgos	8	+3	14
7	Sabadell	8	+2	13
8	Sporting Gijon	8	0	13
9	Granada CF	8	0	11
10	Oviedo	8	0	11
11	Las Palmas	8	−1	11
12	Tenerife	8	−2	11
13	Leganes	8	−5	11
14	Valladolid	8	−3	9
15	Cordoba	8	−5	9
16	Real Sociedad II	8	−2	8
17	Eldense	8	−2	8
18	Celta de Vigo II	8	−4	8
19	Cadiz	8	+1	7
20	FC Andorra	8	−3	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	8	−11	5
22	Albacete	8	−10	1