Castellón v Sporting Gijon prediction · Segunda División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CastellónDrawSporting Gijon

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Castellón 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Castellón are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Castellón 54%, draw 24%, Sporting Gijon 22%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Castellón v Sporting GijonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Castellón win54%

Draw24%

Sporting Gijon win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueEstadio Municipal Castalia

RefereeGorka Etayo Herrera

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Castellón

Sporting Gijon

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Castellón	10	+14	23
7	Sporting Gijon	10	+2	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · castellón winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

54% The market63%

Us54%

~~Market~~63%

We make Castellón a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Castellón v Sporting Gijon~~1.77 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 19~~2 v 7

~~The market · Castellón win~~63% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Castellón win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Castellón win	54%	63%	−9
Draw	24%	22%	+2
Sporting Gijon win	22%	15%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	53%	56%	−3
Both teams to score	54%	53%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	35%	−4
Castellón or draw	78%	85%	−7
Castellón clean sheet	35%	–	–
Sporting Gijon clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.5 6.1 3.3 1 10.3 11.3 5.8 2.0 2 9.3 9.6 5.0 3 5.5 5.7 3.0 4 2.5 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Castellón down, Sporting Gijon across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,456 Segunda División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.75 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Castellón at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting Gijon away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Castellón, 1.05 for Sporting Gijon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.75

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SPO 4–1 CAS · CAS 3–1 SPO · CAS 4–3 SPO · SPO 2–1 CAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept

CASTELLÓN

WWWDLW2–1 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0

SPORTING GIJON

LWLWWW0–1 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Almeria	11	+13	25
2	Castellón	10	+14	23
3	Eibar	11	+7	22
4	Girona	11	+12	21
5	Granada CF	11	+4	20
6	Mallorca	11	+7	19
7	Sporting Gijon	10	+2	19
8	Oviedo	11	+3	18
9	Burgos	10	+3	17
10	Sabadell	10	+2	16
11	Cordoba	11	−3	15
12	Eldense	10	0	14
13	Las Palmas	11	−5	14
14	Tenerife	10	−2	13
15	Valladolid	11	0	12
16	Celta de Vigo II	11	−5	12
17	Leganes	11	−9	12
18	FC Andorra	10	−4	10
19	Real Sociedad II	11	−8	8
20	Cadiz	10	−2	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	−13	5
22	Albacete	10	−16	1