Cadiz v Sporting Gijon prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Cadiz 0–1 Sporting Gijon CADIZ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cadiz win~~39%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.664

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.815

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cadiz win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cadiz was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–34
45′Much as we predicted: Cadiz was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 31% now. 0–0 · 31–41–28
56′We said Cadiz at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–48–25
58′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 27–49–24
64′We said Cadiz at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–55–21
70′We said Cadiz at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–0 · 20–62–18
71′We said Cadiz at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–63–18
78′We said Cadiz at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Cadiz win: 39% at kick-off, 10% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Cadiz win: 39% at kick-off, 20% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Cadiz win: 39% at kick-off, 10% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Cadiz win: 39% at kick-off, 20% now
84′We said Cadiz at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–85–7
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Cadiz win: 39% at kick-off, 10% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Cadiz win: 39% at kick-off, 20% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Cadiz win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Cadiz win: 39% at kick-off, 20% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Cadiz win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Cadiz · On: Damián Rodríguez Sousa · Off: Antonio Cordero Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Cadiz · On: Efe Ugiagbe Aghama · Off: Jandro Orellana Corrected
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Cadiz win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Cadiz 0–1 Sporting Gijon
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Cadiz 0–1 Sporting Gijon · Pablo García
89′Pablo García scores for Sporting Gijon on 87′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–1–99
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Sporting Gijon win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Sporting Gijon win 7%)
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Sporting Gijon win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Sporting Gijon win 7%)
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Sporting Gijon win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Sporting Gijon win 7%)
91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Sporting Gijon · On: Iker Martinez Martinez · Off: César Gelabert Corrected
92′We said Cadiz at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 0–1 · 0–0–100
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Sporting Gijon win 7%)
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Sporting Gijon win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Draw 0%)
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Sporting Gijon win 7%)
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Sporting Gijon win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Draw 0%)
FTFULL TIME Cadiz 0–1 Sporting Gijon
FTCadiz 0–1 Sporting Gijon · Cadiz win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Cadiz win39%

Draw28%

Sporting Gijon win34%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

VenueNuevo Mirandilla

RefereeSaul Ais Reig

Line-ups

Cadiz

4-2-3-1

Sporting Gijon

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cadiz

Sporting Gijon

8Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Sporting Gijon	8	0	13
19	Cadiz	8	+1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cadiz

4-2-3-1

1 D. Gil

27 J. Diaz Peregrina

4 J. Castro

6 M. Fernandez

3 S. Arribas

18 Jandro

28 D. A. Zarate Hidalgo

24 I. Sanchez

17 A. Moueffek

16 A. Cordero

21 V. Kopotun

Coach · Albert Celades

Substitutes

13 · J. Ezkieta

14 · B. Kovacevic

5 · M. Doue

2 · B. de Jesus

31 · N. Ukwuije

23 · D. Rodriguez

25 · G. Petit

8 · E. Aghama

9 · A. Pascual

10 · J. Ontiveros

19 · Izeta

20 · B. Vazquez

Sporting Gijon

3-4-2-1

1 R. Yanez

4 E. Gularte

23 J. Saenz

44 A. Cuenca

2 G. Rosas

8 M. Rodriguez

14 A. Corredera

7 G. Campos

10 C. Gelabert Pina

27 E. Prendes

16 A. Sarco

Coach · Nicolas Larcamon

Substitutes

13 · E. Arana

15 · P. Vazquez

3 · P. Garcia

26 · I. Martinez

5 · D. Sanchez

22 · H. Guillamon

21 · M. Loum

34 · D. Matabuena

35 · C. Ferreres

28 · M. Conde

Our number · cadiz winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

39% The market44%

Us39%

~~Market~~44%

We make Cadiz a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cadiz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cadiz win	39%	44%	−5
Draw	28%	29%	−2
Sporting Gijon win	34%	27%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	46%	43%	+3
Both teams to score	51%	50%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	72%	68%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	23%	+1
Cadiz or draw	66%	73%	−7
Cadiz clean sheet	30%	–	–
Sporting Gijon clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 8.6 9.3 5.9 2.4 1 10.2 13.0 7.6 3.1 2 6.9 8.2 5.0 2.0 3 3.1 3.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cadiz down, Sporting Gijon across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,431 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.5% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cadiz at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting Gijon away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Cadiz, 1.21 for Sporting Gijon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SPO 3–0 CAD · CAD 3–2 SPO · CAD 1–0 SPO · SPO 2–0 CAD

Form · last six in Segunda División

CADIZ

DLLLDW1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 4–0

SPORTING GIJON

WLLWLW1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eibar	8	+11	21
2	Castellón	8	+12	20
3	Almeria	8	+8	18
4	Sabadell	9	+3	16
5	Girona	8	+6	14
6	Mallorca	8	+5	14
7	Burgos	8	+3	14
8	Sporting Gijon	8	0	13
9	Granada CF	8	0	11
10	Oviedo	8	0	11
11	Celta de Vigo II	9	−1	11
12	Las Palmas	8	−1	11
13	Eldense	9	−1	11
14	Tenerife	8	−2	11
15	Leganes	8	−5	11
16	Valladolid	8	−3	9
17	Cordoba	9	−6	9
18	Real Sociedad II	9	−5	8
19	Cadiz	8	+1	7
20	FC Andorra	8	−3	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	−12	5
22	Albacete	8	−10	1