Cadiz v AD Ceuta FC prediction · Segunda División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CadizDrawAD Ceuta FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Cadiz 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cadiz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cadiz 48%, draw 26%, AD Ceuta FC 27%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Cadiz v AD Ceuta FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Cadiz win48%

Draw26%

AD Ceuta FC win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:15

RoundMatchday 11

VenueNuevo Mirandilla

RefereeAndres Fuentes Molina

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cadiz

AD Ceuta FC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
20	Cadiz	10	−2	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	−13	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cadiz winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market49%

Us48%

~~Market~~49%

We make Cadiz a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cadiz v AD Ceuta FC~~1.56 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 5~~20 v 21

~~The market · Cadiz win~~49% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cadiz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cadiz win	48%	49%	−1
Draw	26%	27%	−1
AD Ceuta FC win	27%	24%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%	0
Both teams to score	53%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	73%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	29%	−1
Cadiz or draw	73%	76%	−3
Cadiz clean sheet	34%	–	–
AD Ceuta FC clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.5 7.4 4.2 1 10.6 12.2 6.5 2.4 2 8.5 9.2 5.0 3 4.5 4.8 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cadiz down, AD Ceuta FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,456 Segunda División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cadiz at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). AD Ceuta FC away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Cadiz, 1.10 for AD Ceuta FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ADC 2–1 CAD · CAD 0–0 ADC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 11 Sept

CADIZ

LLDWLL0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 0–2

AD CEUTA FC

LDWDLL1–3 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Almeria	11	+13	25
2	Castellón	10	+14	23
3	Eibar	11	+7	22
4	Girona	11	+12	21
5	Granada CF	11	+4	20
6	Mallorca	11	+7	19
7	Sporting Gijon	10	+2	19
8	Oviedo	11	+3	18
9	Burgos	10	+3	17
10	Sabadell	10	+2	16
11	Cordoba	11	−3	15
12	Eldense	10	0	14
13	Las Palmas	11	−5	14
14	Tenerife	10	−2	13
15	Valladolid	11	0	12
16	Celta de Vigo II	11	−5	12
17	Leganes	11	−9	12
18	FC Andorra	10	−4	10
19	Real Sociedad II	11	−8	8
20	Cadiz	10	−2	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	−13	5
22	Albacete	10	−16	1