Burgos v Sabadell prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 22:30

Burgos 1–0 Sabadell BURGOS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Burgos win~~42%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.505

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.673

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Burgos win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Burgos was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–31–27
1′KICK-OFF Burgos v Sabadell
5′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Alejandro Lizancos Saldaña · Burgos
14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Grego Sierra · Burgos
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Óscar Sanz · Sabadell
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Burgos
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Burgos win 35%)
35′SUBSTITUTION · 34' Burgos · On: Curro · Off: David Gonzalez
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Burgos win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
45′SECOND HALF Burgos 0–0 Sabadell
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Burgos · On: Alberto Dadie · Off: Kevin Appin
47′HALF-TIME Burgos 0–0 Sabadell
49′We said Burgos at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–49–21
51′We said Burgos at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–20
60′9 shots for Burgos, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 25–57–18
61′PENALTY MISSED · 60' Curro · Burgos
62′We said Burgos at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
63′We published Burgos at 42%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–15–2
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Burgos 1–0 Sabadell
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Burgos win: 42% at kick-off, 83% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Burgos win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
64′Burgos ahead on 63′ through Curro. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–14–2
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sabadell · On: Eneko Aguilar · Off: Pere Pons
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Sabadell · On: Yanis Rahmani · Off: Ton Ripoll
67′We published Burgos at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Sabadell · On: Gastón Joaquín Valles Velázquez · Off: José Luis Català
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Burgos · On: Álex Forés · Off: Jon Karrikaburu
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Burgos · On: Victor Mollejo · Off: Javier Llabrés Exposito
77′We published Burgos at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sabadell · On: Alain Ribeiro · Off: Joel Priego
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sabadell · On: Nikolay Obolskiy · Off: Quadri Liameed
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Burgos · On: José Gragera · Off: Pablo Galdames
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Burgos win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
84′We published Burgos at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Burgos 1–0 Sabadell
FTBurgos 1–0 Sabadell · Burgos win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Burgos are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Burgos 42%, draw 31%, Sabadell 27%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Burgos v SabadellBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Burgos win42%

Draw31%

Sabadell win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueMunicipal El Plantio

RefereeManuel Angel Perez Hernandez

Line-ups

Burgos

4-2-3-1

Sabadell

3-1-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Burgos

Sabadell

6Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

Last match: 10 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Sabadell	9	+3	16
9	Burgos	9	+2	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Burgos

4-2-3-1

13 A. Cantero

2 A. Lizancos

15 O. Luengo

8 G. Sierra

22 B. Martinez

12 U. Vencedor

4 P. Galdames

10 K. Appin

14 D. Gonzalez Ballesteros

19 J. Llabres

7 J. Karrikaburu

Coach · Sergio Francisco

Substitutes

1 · B. Iribarne

6 · S. Gonzalez

3 · I. Vilarrasa

23 · A. Dadie Izagirre

36 · I. Martinez

20 · J. Gragera

18 · S. del Cerro

5 · M. Exposito

11 · V. Mollejo

21 · F. Garcia

16 · C. Sanchez

9 · A. Fores

Sabadell

3-1-4-2

1 D. Fuoli

27 J. Catala

14 O. Sanz

5 Bonaldo

20 A. Orriols Cerarols

7 T. Ripoll

22 Q. Liameed

8 P. Pons

2 Pipa

23 J. Priego

10 A. Baena Perez

Coach · Ferran Costa

Substitutes

13 · J. Ortega

25 · M. V. Vidal Girona

15 · J. C. Lazaro Cervera

19 · Y. Rahmani

21 · A. Ribeiro

24 · E. Aguilar Elizalde

18 · Y. Owusu

9 · N. Obolskiy

12 · G. Valles

33 · J. Utges

Our number · burgos winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:46 · locked at kick-off

42% The market33%

Us42%

~~Market~~33%

We make Burgos a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Burgos v Sabadell~~1.15 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 16~~9 v 7

~~The market · Burgos win~~33% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Burgos win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. The market has gone from 37% to 33% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Burgos win	42%	33%	+9
Draw	31%	33%	−2
Sabadell win	27%	34%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	32%	37%	−5
Both teams to score	39%	44%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	60%	62%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	14%	17%	−3
Burgos or draw	73%	66%	+7
Burgos clean sheet	43%	–	–
Sabadell clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 14.0 11.2 5.0 1 15.1 13.4 5.6 2 8.8 7.5 3.2 3 3.4 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Burgos down, Sabadell across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,444 Segunda División matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Burgos at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sabadell away: 0.60 scored, 0.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Burgos, 0.86 for Sabadell. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 19:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 6 Sept

BURGOS

DWWWLL0–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

SABADELL

WLWDDW3–2 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Almeria	10	+13	24
2	Castellón	10	+14	23
3	Eibar	10	+9	22
4	Sporting Gijon	10	+2	19
5	Mallorca	10	+7	18
6	Oviedo	10	+3	17
7	Sabadell	9	+3	16
8	Girona	9	+6	15
9	Burgos	9	+2	14
10	Granada CF	9	+1	14
11	Valladolid	9	+2	12
12	Tenerife	9	−2	12
13	Cordoba	10	−5	12
14	Celta de Vigo II	9	−1	11
15	Eldense	9	−1	11
16	Las Palmas	10	−6	11
17	Leganes	10	−9	11
18	FC Andorra	9	−2	10
19	Real Sociedad II	10	−7	8
20	Cadiz	9	0	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	−13	5
22	Albacete	10	−16	1